Stifel is out with commentary on Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) after China released its monthly export data for December earlier Wednesday.

In this we would find that total handheld wireless phone and parts exports (US$) in China for December declined 13% y/y [...] the December export data shows that total 4Q15 mobile phone exports was flat y/y in December; reflective of a 47% sequential increase, which compares to +45%, +23%, and +58% seq. in the December 2012, 2013, and 2014 quarters, respectively. While we believe exports coming specifically out of the Henan and Shanghai provinces as more direct data points as it relates to iPhone production, [we note] a very high historical correlation (R2 = 0.922) between total China mobile phone exports and Apple’s iPhone shipments, excluding China (ex-China due to our belief that consumption within China would not be reflected in an exported figure). Using the December 2015 results in this historical correlation, we would arrive at an implied ex-China iPhone shipment estimate at approximately 61.9 million for C4Q15, or flat y/y.

Stifel has Apple at Buy with a price target of $140.

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