Rosenblatt Downgrades Apple (AAPL) to Neutral on Concerns About China's Slowing Smartphone Market
(Updated - January 6, 2016 9:23 AM EST)
Rosenblatt cut Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $102. Analyst Jun Zhang tied the rating change to concerns about slowing growth in China and middle-end market competition.
"We believe iPhone 6S sales have slowed down during the holiday season reaching high market inventory levels. Therefore, we believe iPhone production has been reduced again in the past two weeks to 43M units for the March quarter. Now, we expect March quarter iPhone sales to be around 45-46M, considering enough inventory in the retailing channels," said Zhang.
The analyst continued, "The next headwind for iPhone sales will most likely be China’s slowing smartphone market. In addition, we believe the rise of Huawei in China will be the main threat to iPhone’s market share, especially to their old models such as the iPhone 6 and iPhone 5S."
Discussing China in more detail, Zhang said, "Normally, iPhone sales resume normal seasonality in the June quarter, but it is in our view that the overall China smartphone market is slowing down to flattish YoY growth in 2016, which will affect iPhone sales growth in China. We do not believe India will become a meaningful iPhone market in the short-term. Most people misunderstood China’s smartphone market believing their penetration rate is only around 20- 30%, whereas we believe it is actually over 60% today since the total mobile subscriber base needs to discount due to increasing multiple phone and cell number users. We believe China Mobile (CHL: NR) users, who have more than one smartphone and one cell number, account for 60% of the total subscriber base. This is why we believe 4G smartphone growth will slow down from 200% YoY in 2015 to 30-40% YoY in 2016. Also, we think China’s iPhone sales growth will also slow down to 100% YoY growth in 2015 to 20- 30% YoY growth in 2016. Apple’s other new products, such as the iPad Pro, iWatch and Apple TV, have not become meaningful revenue resources to offset slowing iPhone sales in 2016."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Apple click here. For more ratings news on Apple click here.
Shares of Apple closed at $102.71 yesterday.
