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TubeMogul (TUBE) Quarterly Results Show an Early Lead in Cross Screen Brand Advertising - RBC Capital

November 10, 2015 8:04 AM

TubeMogul, Inc (NASDAQ: TUBE) reported another “beat & raise” quarter with Q3 results cleanly beating estimates and Q4 guidance slightly above the Street. Several incremental growth drivers kicking in including Programmatic TV, Branded Display, Cross-Screen, & Brand Direct. RBC Capital analyst, Rohit Kulkarni, lists the positive and negative points to the quarter:

Positives

1) Brand & Agency Direct: Combined accounted for 60+% of Ad Spend vs. ~30-40% in 2014, implying more stickiness & visibility

2) Mobile: Accounts for 10-15% of Ad Spend vs. 7% in 2014, growing a solid triple digit % Y/Y

3) Programmatic TV: Contributed more than $6MM in Ad Spend in Q2, exceeding management’s expectation for all of 2015

4) Platform Services Spend: Surprisingly accelerated 25- pts to 61% Y/Y, despite tougher comps, ‘tho highlighted the lumpiness & lack of predictability/visibility associated with this managed services component.

Negatives

1) Discontinuing Client Net Adds Disclosure: 30 Platform direct net adds vs. 23 in Q1 and 38 in Q2:14

2) Economic Take Rate: (Gross Profit as a % of Ad Spend) came in at 28.7%, declined both Y/Y and Q/Q, given shift toward larger Brands & direct Agency relations coupled with PTV growth)

3) Google/YouTube Policy Changes: Minimal direct negative impact on TUBE’s near-term fundamentals, but underscores “walled gardens” ecosystem risks for Ad-Tech.

Maintain Outperform and $18 PT.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on TubeMogul, Inc click here. For more ratings news on TubeMogul, Inc click here.

Shares of TubeMogul, Inc closed at $12.46 yesterday.

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