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Good Tableau Software (DATA) Quarter but Spending Will Keep Dragging Down Margins - FBR

November 6, 2015 7:26 AM

Tableau Software (NYSE: DATA) total revenue of $170.8 million (64% year over year) handily beat the Street's estimate of $157.6 million. License revenue came in at $109.5 million, which represented 57% yearover-year growth (versus 60% growth in 2Q) above the Street's estimate of $101.5 million. The better than expected top line and margins flowed through to EPS of $0.15 which beat the street at $0.07.

A key metric to watch is deal size. The number of large deals seems to be accelerating at 296 orders above $100k compared to 233 one quarter ago. This is a good thing because margins may be an issue for the company. The company guided for Q4 operating income of $17.5 million versus the Street's $24.3 million and stated that 2016 would be another investment year.

Geographically, international customers accounted for 25% of revenue in the quarter which is up 75% from the prior year.

FBR analyst, Daniel Ives noted high adoption for the recently launched Tableau 9.1 that should help add further tailwinds to growth/profitability over the next 12 to 18 months. “The company is on its way to operating margin expansion over the long term as benefits from scale begin to pay dividends to the company bottom line”.

The stock isn’t cheap and the analyst’s $115 PT is based on a 9x price to sales multiple. No change to the Market Perform rating, with the price target up from $110.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tableau Software click here. For more ratings news on Tableau Software click here.

Shares of Tableau Software closed at $84.39 yesterday.

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