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Citron Research: Not Dialing Back Warning on Valeant Pharma (VRX), Dialing Back on Citron Focus

November 2, 2015 10:02 AM

(Updated - November 2, 2015 10:06 AM EST)

Citron Research: Not dialing back warning on Valeant Pharma (NYSE: VRX), instead they are dialing back the focus on Citron to investigate and report the vast spectrum of claims now piling up against the company.

Citron said "For those of you expecting a “kill shot”, you can stop reading here."

Citron said the stock is uninvestible for the foreseeable future.

Citron provided the following list of some but not all of the immediate concerns facing Valeant and its shareholders:

1) Valeant’s civil and criminal culpability for the actions of the “Philidor Network”, stretching back to its creation. These include but are not limited to: insurance fraud, mail fraud, accounting fraud, and HIPAA violations, perjury by company employees in state regulatory filings, and potential civil and criminal RICO overhangs.

2) The harsh financial consequences of prescriptions improperly reimbursed through the now cancelled PBM's contracts, [reference Article 7 in this link] which all explicitly specify consequences, including audits, with retroactive refunds plus fines for each wrongly reimbursed prescription, retroactively applicable for at least three years.

3) Loss of at least half, and possibly all, of Valeant's Dermatology drug channel. We know only what the company discloses about the loss of the Philidor channel. But what will the sales teams do now? Will they even stay? PBM's are now all alerted, and will be fine-tooth-combing every Valeant derma prescription for years. This reputational damage is not so easily undone. It is Citron's opinion that the PBM's will be scrutinizing all future Valeant prescriptions, not just dermatological drugs.

4) Heightened scrutiny from auditors that will extend through all Valeant’s distribution channels – including, of course, the entire “consolidated” Philidor network, as well as Europe.

5) Earnings restatements -- How can these possibly be avoided, given the volume of manipulated prescriptions?

6) Responding to dozens of subpoenas and whatever charges come from the investigations

7) The end of Valeant's drug price raise strategy.

8) The end of Valeant's acquisition strategy.

9) Eroding revenue base across nearly all product lines due to reputational damage. All drugs are melting ice cubes due to improved treatments, generic competition, and aging patents. All this reputational damage simply accelerates the rate at which Valeant's ice cubes melt.

10) Vulnerability to unfavorable tax treatment rulings from US as well as Canadian tax authorities, which are conducting reviews of several years of Valeant’s past returns as well as going forward. …. And finally,

11) Dramatically increasing CDS spreads on Valeant's debt

Link to full report from Citron

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