Baird analyst Colin Sebastian recently hosted an expert conference call with Business and Payments Advisor Brian Roemmele. Key highlights: 1) PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) is the clear benefactor due to product and sales breadth; 2) Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) will explore online payments after dipping its toe in the P2P industry; 3) competition from Square (NYSE: SQ) may be limited due to churn and without a larger sales force.

PayPal remains a clear benefactor of digital payment innovation, with a portfolio of products that encompass in-app payment processing (Braintree), peer-to-peer money transfer (Venmo), international remittance (Xoom), e-commerce (PayPal), and credit extension (PayPal Credit). PayPal's sizable salesforce should also help keep Braintree's offering competitive with Stripe's highly-regarded online payments gateway

The combination of a treasure trove of user data and buy button like initiatives make Facebook a potential payment innovator. Messenger already supports peer-to-peer payment, and Facebook has already articulated business-focused aspirations

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has now essentially emulated Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) playbook for mobile payments with Android Pay, but without the 15 bps/transaction financial benefit.

Square may not pose a significant competitive threat. Square has one of the best SMB payment solutions on the market but the >50% failure rate of micro merchants after 15 months presents some longer-term structural challenges.