The Good the Blah and the Ugly from OpCo's Emerging Tech Preview (INVN) (SYNA) (GRMN) (GLW)
Oppenheimer published its emerging technologies earnings preview titled “2 up, 1 down”. Instead of covering 3 companies though it covered 12 so we sorted them based on near term outlook.
The Good:
On the positive side, there’s Invensense (NASDAQ: INVN). Apple seems to be a secure customer (no design socket loss in phone, and new socket for Apple TV remote) and we expect growing share in OIS, on the other hand Samsung share is declining and we don't see any margin expansion – more likely compression. No change to estimates but no expectation for upside.
The two companies Oppenheimer believes may surprise to the upside are CEVA (NASDAQ: CEVA) Inc. and Orbotech (NASDAQ: ORBK). CEVA preannounced positively and confirmed new customers and 4G shifts are happening. We believe we could see better than expected guidance. We are seeing oversupply in LCD display industry but haven't seen a slow-down in new LCD capex - yet. This should be good for ORBK’s current numbers but commentary needs to be positive to gain confidence in ORBK's FPD business segment into 2016.
Microvision (NASDAQ: MVIS) - We expect continued progress with the several partners already confirmed. We look for an update on the first products using MVIS' picoprojector technology
Oppeheimer cut estimates on Synaptics (NASDAQ: SYNA) even though they like this story long term due to its TDDI solution (larger TAM, few competitors). However, they reduced estimates lower for FY16 and FY17 revenues/EPS estimates from $2,016M/$6.66 and $2,190M/$7.33 to $1,964M/$6.39 and $2,152M/$7.30. Lower estimates are based on slower fingerprint sensor adoption, faster price erosion in touch/fingerprint, and lost share at Samsung in the GS6 line. This quarter could be the quarter we see estimates moving down.
The Blah:
Atmel (NASDAQ: ATML) - Macro could weigh on results but focus will be on progress for the acquisition by Dialog Semi. No change to numbers.
Universal Panel Display (NASDAQ: OLED) - On the positive side - we expect LG to be filling channel for holiday OLED TV sales + Samsung getting traction moving OLED displays into the China smartphone market should offset Samsung's own slowing mobile sales. We do worry about pricing and ultimately sell through for OLED TVs. No change to numbers.
Energous Corp (NASDAQ: WATT) needs to give clarity on the key executive departure, potentially a second tier one deal progress, and cash use.
eMagin Corp (NASDAQ: EMAN) should have an in-line quarter with no surprises, and some margin improvement resulting from further production yield and efficiency upgrades. We hope to hear updates regarding EMAN's own consumer VR headset.
The Ugly:
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) preannounced negatively confirmed our fears that multiple segments are facing trouble (not getting traction in Fitness vs. competitors, Aviation seeing fewer end market orders, and Auto continuing to decline). Pressure could mount on the cash ($12.50 per share). Reduced our 2015 EPS estimates from $2.57 to $2.28 to be better aligned to the preannouncement.
Himax Technologies (NASDAQ: HIMX) - We are negative into the quarter as we believe Street numbers are too high due to overcapacity and over-supply of displays/TVs. While newer top-line drivers (OLED, China market share gains, and non-display) are not yet material to support near-term weakness. Reduced 2015 EPS estimates from $0.16 to $0.13 based on weaker TV and smartphone outlook in 2H15. Our 2016 EPS estimate is reduced from $0.16 to $0.05 due to negative outlook on LCD panel market in 1H16 and severe competition in the smallsized driver IC market.
Corning (NYSE: GLW) Oppenheimer believes overcapacity in LCD panel, slowing smart phone market, and high TV channel inventory will mean slower area growth in 2H15 and worsening glass pricing. Telecommunications which has been strong could see a slowdown on macro concerns. Consequently, they reduced FY15 and FY16 revenues/EPS estimates from $9,848M/$1.41 and $9,874M/$1.50 to $9,794M/$1.40 and $9,636M/$1.47.
