Stifel analyst Thomas Shrader weighed in on Esperion Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ESPR) following what he called "confusion in the world of LDL lowering drugs" after the ACCELERATE trial for the CETP inhibitor evacetrapib has been stopped for futility by its sponsor Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). Shrader said what seems less understood is that "based on this trial’s inclusion and exclusion criteria, this trial involved patients with controlled LDL-C."

He reminds investors that evacetrapib’s promise was predicated on the idea that raising HDL cholesterol was good, so the trial included patients without confounding uncontrolled levels LDL-C. In other words, today's news supports – modestly, via the process of elimination – the LDL hypothesis.

On what the news means for ESPR, Shrader said:

"On one hand, a competitor has failed – possibly due to a flawed trial design and incorrect therapeutic hypothesis (that HDL is the big gun in HRVD). This result also suggests that Merck’s CTEP trial may be more likely to fail (although their trial population may be different).

With respect to the LDL hypothesis – we see this result as modestly positive. HRVD patients as a group are generally considered at risk for more CV trouble (as suggested by the name). If the ACCELERATE population (controlled LDL-C) is not at risk – doesn’t that suggest the risk of the group is carried by the patients with uncontrolled LDL-C? We think that is essentially the LDL-hypothesis. Both the Regeneron and Amgen mini-outcomes trials suggest HRVD patients with high LDL-C are helped by LDL lowering (2,000-4,000 patient trials published in the NEJM last month). We see nothing in today’s news to suggest that these patients will not be helped by ETC-1002 as well."

The firm maintained a Buy rating and $105 price target on ESPR.

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Shares of Esperion Therapeutics closed at $24.96 yesterday.