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GoPro (GPRO) 'Beat and Raise' May Not Be Enough as New Product Demand Seen as 'Lukewarm' - Pacific Crest

July 17, 2015 7:18 AM

GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) demand remains steady, but response to new products is "lukewarm," said Pacific Crest Analyst Brad Erickson. Given this, a beat and raise is unlikely to erase bears' concerns, he said.

Erickson raised his 2016 EPS estimate to $1.98 from $1.88, incorporating 170,000 drones into his 2016 model. This equates to roughly $90 million of incremental revenue.

Erickson explained, "Checks indicate GoPro demand remains steady albeit with lukewarm demand for new products. We expect a beat/raise, but believe new products are unlikely to shake the bears, which could limit multiple expansion and reinforces our Sector Weight rating."

"Days of inventory were relatively flat m/m and remain healthy at just over two weeks, not excessively high, in our view. Absolute inventory levels were also flat m/m driven by fewer Hero 4 Black products offset by recently introduced products, the Hero LCD+ and the Hero 4 Session. While initial demand for the Session appears mild, we think the portfolio has enough momentum to carry upside versus Street expectations through to Q4, where the high-end refresh should drive a significant sequential uptick in volumes," continued the analyst.

"Beating and raising unlikely to erase bears' concerns on GPRO," added Erickson. "Launching two new products helps smooth the q/q fluctuations in front of the holiday, but a lackluster response to new products is unlikely to cause bears' market saturation concerns to end. We expect a beat and raise out of GoPro next week, but with the stock trading at 28x out-year EPS, we see limited opportunities for multiple expansion, and as such, remain Sector Weight on the name."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on GoPro click here. For more ratings news on GoPro click here.

Shares of GoPro closed at $55.24 yesterday.

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