UnitedHealth (UNH) Deal 'Highly Unlikely' to Be Imminent - Mizuho (AET) (CI)
A merger deal involving UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) is 'high unlikely' to be imminent, said Mizuho Securities analyst Sheryl R. Skolnick. Comments follow earlier rumors from WSJ that suggested the company was eyeing Cigna Corp. (NYSE: CI) and Aetna (NYSE: AET). WSJ also reported that Anthem (NYSE: ANTM) is pursuing a takeover of Cigna Corp.
Skolnick pointed out that UnitedHealth Director Gail Wilensky just filed to sell stock, so the company can't be in a quiet period. She also said management indicated that things are 'business as usual'.
Skolnick explained, "Despite headlines to the contrary, based on our chat with UNH this afternoon, we see it as HIGHLY UNLIKELY that any deal for CI, AET or any other major company is imminent. UNH 'has to' do nothing as it has scale at UHC, Optum's growth and plenty of future opportunities. However, we see UNH as being in the enviable position of 'being able to' do pretty much whatever it wants."
The analyst continued, "UNH doesn't need to do anything. CI or AET might bring scale to UNH's benefits business, but gee it already has plenty of that. Moreover, UNH has grown covered lives organically by 8 million in five years, with another one million expected this year. It doesn't need growth either. And then there's Optum, which is by all accounts showing outstanding growth in a market with expansive opportunities. Finally, AMIL looked to be turning around in 1Q15. By the way, we wouldn't get too hyped up about the impact of the Target pharmacy sale today (see Ann Hynes' note earlier today): we think concerns are way out of whack with reality."
Skolnick added, “CEO Hemsley of course wouldn't rule out large M&A when answering investor or analyst questions. But it might not be the M&A holders of CI, AET, HUM or any other domestic company besides CTRX hope it will be. It's a prudent, not necessarily prescient, answer. Finally, was ANTM really clever enough to talk up HUM when really interested in CI all the time? Or does HUM need to sell itself and ANTM need to buy something, both in the very near future, for some other reason? Perhaps those who cover each of those companies can answer that question. In the meantime, our advice is: Chill on UNH/CI or UNH/AET - in our view it's not about to happen....at least not yet.”
Mizuho Securities has a Buy rating on UnitedHealth Group with a price target of $146.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on UnitedHealth Group click here. For more ratings news on UnitedHealth Group click here.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group closed at $117.65 yesterday.
