UBS analyst Matthew Roden reiterated a Neutral rating but raised his price target on Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB) to $422.00 (from $350.00) following Q1 results. While they remain cautious on expected revisions to Tecfidera estimates they are positive on AD.

Roden's key takeaways from the call:

[1] Gross to net adjustments were higher this quarter for Tecfidera in part due to the donut hole. US inventory was 2.5 weeks at the end of the quarter, with slight drawdown in the specialty pharmacy channel. [2] Biogen is close to finalizing the plan for the BIIB037 ph3, expected to begin in 2H. Two identical 18-month trials, each with 1,350 early Alzheimer's patients, are planned with CDR-sb as the primary endpoint. In each study, ApoE ε4 carriers and non-carriers will be stratified and dosed differently to minimize ARIA. The ph3 will likely implement the same IV administration as the ph1b. [3] 54-week data for the 6mg/kg cohort from the BIIB037 ph1b will be presented at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference (AAIC, July 18-23). Management noted that they don't have concerns the 6mg/kg cohort represents an outlier and feel comfortable that it behaves roughly in line with what would have been expected based on the other cohorts at the time point. [4] The Tecfidera INSPIRE study in SPMS began, with a primary endpoint is a composite for time to confirmed progression.

The firm cut FY 2015 EPS from $17.23 to $16.48, FY 2016 EPS from $19.66 to $19.48 and FY 2047 EPS from $21.66 to $219.19.

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Shares of Biogen closed at $401.71 yesterday.