Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) is up 1% into earnings after the close of trading today. Analysts on average are looking for EPS of $2.10 on revenues of $4.91 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 12% and 9%, respectively. On average over the past four quarters, the company has beaten the EPS consensus by 6%. The average one-week move following earnings is up 0.5%. Last quarter the stock fell 2.8% in the day immediately following earnings, despite beating by 11 cents. The prior two quarters the stock was up 6% and 5% in the day immediately following earnings.

Previewing Amgen's Q1 results, Nomura analyst M. Ian Somaiya noted Neupogen continues to see impact from generic competition ($274mn vs. $287mn), a trend they expect to accelerate following positive panel vote on Novartis’ biosimilar in December. They believe 1Q base business performance may be negatively impacted by inventory drawdown as they note that Enbrel saw $40mn inventory build in 4Q.

Further, Somaiya commented: "Amgen also introduced guidance of $20.8–21.3bn/$9.05/$9.40. However, despite taking a more conservative stance on Amgen’s topline ($20.7bn), reflecting our expectation that Neupogen will see faster share erosion following positive panel vote for Novartis’ biosimilar, our EPS estimates still fall within guidance ($9.08) as we account for recent cost cutting initiatives (announced at the Oct. Business Update meeting). Importantly, our estimates assume <$50mn in total contribution from key pipeline drugs Repatha (evolocumab) and Corlanor (ivabradine), leaving plenty of room for upside."

On the 1Q earnings call they expect investor focus to be on: 1) performance of the base business, particularly any erosion in Neulasta or Epogen; 2) change in trajectory for Kyprolis following positive ENDEAVOR data; 3) updates on Repatha launch planning and 4) biosimilar development strategy.