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Goldman Sachs Comments on Deckers (DECK) Q3 and Guidance

January 30, 2015 10:33 AM

Goldman Sachs analyst Taposh Bari commented on Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) following weak Q3 results and guidance after the close yesterday. Shares are lower by about 16% indraday. Analyst Taposh Bari isn't surprised to see weakness in the stock.

"A negative revenue headline, -7% SSS (vs. our estimate for 0%) and below consensus guidance are likely to weigh on shares, even after the sell-off into earnings. A history of cyclicality in the stock and lack of catalysts (the key selling season has passed) may compound these issues," said Bari.

"At first glance, the issues at hand appear more a reflection of poor guidance and planning by management than a structural break in the model. In effect, the sales growth deceleration (from 24% in 2Q15 to 7% in 3Q15) at UGG proved to be steeper than many expected. In retrospect, the comparison from last year’s “polar vortex”, which likely led to strong replenishment by retailers and consumers, may have proven more difficult than originally anticipated," continued the analyst.

"That said, this Holiday revenue miss seems very different from the one in 2012 (the last time DECK’s business rolled over) for a few reasons: 1) UGG inventories are aligned with revenues exiting the quarter, 2) sheepskin costs are controlled, 3) the product line is more diversified and 4) the company has a more effective omni-channel strategy," added Bari. "Further, while the guidance appears short of consensus, it excludes share repurchases, which are likely to be a driver of EPS given DECK’s activity in 3Q14 and authorization of an additional $200mn of buybacks."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Deckers Outdoor click here. For more ratings news on Deckers Outdoor click here.

Shares of Deckers Outdoor closed at $79.80 yesterday.

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