TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales Up 42% Year-Over-Year for March 2021 in First Year-Over-Year Compare Since Covid-19 Impact on Industry

March 25, 2021 9:00 AM EDT

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SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent way to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,460,820 units in March 2021, up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,260,416 units, an increase of 53% from a year ago and an increase of 10% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"The pandemic's dramatic impact on the automotive industry and U.S. economy at large began in the last two weeks of March 2020 when dealerships and OEM plants shut down and stay at home mandates rolled out, which gives us our first year-over-year sales compare," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.  "Automotive sales dropped 38% from 2019, so it's no surprise that we're seeing total sales up 42% and retail sales up 53% when compared to the March 2020. Looking at the year-over-year sales forecast, domestic brands such as GM and Ford, fared much better because parts of the country that hold a majority of trucks sales from these brands had not yet rolled out their state stay at home orders at this point last year."  

"In order to get back to a full recovery we need to see improvement in fleet sales.  This month we expect to see further encouraging trends in fleet as commercial activity picks up as well as some rental fleet as travel slowly resumes," added Woolard.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $54.8 billion for March 2021, up 52% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 21% from last month.

"As consumers receive their stimulus checks and tax refunds, we expect demand for vehicles to increase. At the same time, production complications such as with microchips and shortages of other core materials are affecting a number of automakers, and retailers are struggling to have enough supply to meet the strong demand," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar.  "Consumers who are very specific about the vehicle they want to purchase may need to be extra patient, as they will likely have a harder time finding their first choice of color or trim when shopping."

"Vehicles are turning on dealer lots very quickly because of the supply and demand imbalance. In fact, according to TrueCar's new car inventory data, the average vehicle is in inventory for only 56 days, which is two weeks less on the dealer lot than during this exact time last year," added Tompkins.  "This is also causing the price of used vehicles to increase significantly year-over-year. The average listing of the used vehicle on TrueCar is up $2,300 year-over-year, so if consumers are looking to sell their used vehicles, now is a great time."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

  • Total retail sales for March 2021 are expected to be up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for March 2021 are expected to be down 2.5% from a year ago and up 35% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021.
  • Total SAAR is expected to increase 44% from a year ago from 11.4 million units to 16.4 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for March 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 104% from a year ago and up 1% from February 2021.  
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.3%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2021 is 70 months, a two-month decrease, when compared to the average loan term of 72 months from this time last year.

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

  • Total unit sales for Q1 are expected to be up 10% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 4% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q1 are expected to be up 21% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 7% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

March 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

30,562

16,301

26,393

87.5%

80.3%

15.8%

6.9%

Daimler

21,785

18,571

20,317

17.3%

12.8%

7.2%

-1.0%

Ford

198,748

169,012

161,834

17.6%

13.1%

22.8%

13.4%

GM

232,535

169,952

191,846

36.8%

31.6%

21.2%

11.9%

Honda

140,062

77,153

106,328

81.5%

74.6%

31.7%

21.6%

Hyundai

68,370

36,087

50,735

89.5%

82.2%

34.8%

24.4%

Kia

57,908

45,413

48,062

27.5%

22.6%

20.5%

11.2%

Nissan

105,897

77,655

86,138

36.4%

31.1%

22.9%

13.5%

Stellantis

164,111

127,596

151,912

28.6%

23.7%

8.0%

-0.3%

Subaru

63,277

32,611

48,300

94.0%

86.6%

31.0%

20.9%

Tesla

24,513

13,400

21,550

82.9%

75.9%

13.8%

5.0%

Toyota

231,965

133,198

184,249

74.2%

67.5%

25.9%

16.2%

Volkswagen Group

56,673

33,780

46,846

67.8%

61.3%

21.0%

11.7%

Industry

1,460,820

990,332

1,196,008

47.5%

41.8%

22.1%

12.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

30,025

14,846

25,931

102.2%

94.5%

15.8%

6.9%

Daimler

21,340

17,377

19,901

22.8%

18.1%

7.2%

-1.0%

Ford

151,462

112,495

131,563

34.6%

29.5%

15.1%

6.3%

GM

197,743

136,443

166,641

44.9%

39.4%

18.7%

9.5%

Honda

139,478

75,901

105,882

83.8%

76.7%

31.7%

21.6%

Hyundai

62,455

30,270

46,342

106.3%

98.4%

34.8%

24.4%

Kia

51,040

36,849

46,274

38.5%

33.2%

10.3%

1.8%

Nissan

74,593

50,853

71,069

46.7%

41.0%

5.0%

-3.1%

Stellantis

138,109

98,725

124,864

39.9%

34.5%

10.6%

2.1%

Subaru

60,918

30,623

46,499

98.9%

91.3%

31.0%

20.9%

Tesla

24,505

13,400

21,543

82.9%

75.8%

13.8%

5.0%

Toyota

201,930

115,551

162,434

74.8%

68.0%

24.3%

14.8%

Volkswagen Group

55,823

29,298

46,150

90.5%

83.2%

21.0%

11.7%

Industry

1,260,416

792,735

1,059,009

59.0%

52.9%

19.0%

9.9%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

536

1,455

462

-63.1%

-64.6%

16.1%

7.2%

Daimler

446

1,194

416

-62.7%

-64.1%

7.2%

-1.0%

Ford

47,286

56,517

30,271

-16.3%

-19.6%

56.2%

44.2%

GM

34,792

33,509

25,205

3.8%

-0.2%

38.0%

27.4%

Honda

585

1,252

446

-53.3%

-55.1%

31.2%

21.1%

Hyundai

5,914

5,817

4,393

1.7%

-2.2%

34.6%

24.3%

Kia

6,868

8,564

1,788

-19.8%

-22.9%

284.1%

254.6%

Nissan

31,304

26,802

15,069

16.8%

12.3%

107.7%

91.8%

Stellantis

26,002

28,871

27,048

-9.9%

-13.4%

-3.9%

-11.3%

Subaru

2,359

1,988

1,801

18.7%

14.1%

31.0%

20.9%

Tesla

8

-

7

13.8%

5.0%

Toyota

30,036

17,647

21,815

70.2%

63.7%

37.7%

27.1%

Volkswagen Group

850

4,482

696

-81.0%

-81.8%

22.1%

12.7%

Industry

200,404

197,597

136,999

1.4%

-2.5%

46.3%

35.0%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

1.8%

8.9%

1.7%

-80.3%

0.3%

Daimler

2.0%

6.4%

2.0%

-68.2%

0.0%

Ford

23.8%

33.4%

18.7%

-28.9%

27.2%

GM

15.0%

19.7%

13.1%

-24.1%

13.9%

Honda

0.4%

1.6%

0.4%

-74.3%

-0.4%

Hyundai

8.7%

16.1%

8.7%

-46.3%

-0.1%

Kia

11.9%

18.9%

3.7%

-37.1%

218.8%

Nissan

29.6%

34.5%

17.5%

-14.4%

69.0%

Stellantis

15.8%

22.6%

17.8%

-30.0%

-11.0%

Subaru

3.7%

6.1%

3.7%

-38.8%

0.0%

Tesla

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Toyota

12.9%

13.2%

11.8%

-2.3%

9.4%

Volkswagen Group

1.5%

13.3%

1.5%

-88.7%

1.0%

Industry

17.4%

23.4%

11.1%

-25.7%

56.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

BMW

2.1%

1.6%

2.2%

Daimler

1.5%

1.9%

1.7%

Ford

13.6%

17.1%

13.5%

GM

15.9%

17.2%

16.0%

Honda

9.6%

7.8%

8.9%

Hyundai

4.7%

3.6%

4.2%

Kia

4.0%

4.6%

4.0%

Nissan

7.2%

7.8%

7.2%

Stellantis

11.2%

12.9%

12.7%

Subaru

4.3%

3.3%

4.0%

Tesla

1.7%

1.4%

1.8%

Toyota

15.9%

13.4%

15.4%

Volkswagen Group

3.9%

3.4%

3.9%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

BMW

2.4%

1.9%

2.4%

Daimler

1.7%

2.2%

1.9%

Ford

12.0%

14.2%

12.4%

GM

15.7%

17.2%

15.7%

Honda

11.1%

9.6%

10.0%

Hyundai

5.0%

3.8%

4.4%

Kia

4.0%

4.6%

4.4%

Nissan

5.9%

6.4%

6.7%

Stellantis

11.0%

12.5%

11.8%

Subaru

4.8%

3.9%

4.4%

Tesla

1.9%

1.7%

2.0%

Toyota

16.0%

14.6%

15.3%

Volkswagen Group

4.4%

3.7%

4.4%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$61,139

$60,337

$60,892

1.3%

0.4%

Daimler

$62,082

$59,749

$62,153

3.9%

-0.1%

Ford

$44,293

$42,774

$44,125

3.6%

0.4%

GM

$41,860

$40,700

$41,408

2.9%

1.1%

Honda

$31,916

$29,727

$31,950

7.4%

-0.1%

Hyundai

$30,281

$28,343

$30,517

6.8%

-0.8%

Kia

$28,604

$26,360

$28,498

8.5%

0.4%

Nissan

$29,512

$27,926

$29,381

5.7%

0.4%

Stellantis

$43,086

$40,817

$42,747

5.6%

0.8%

Subaru

$30,389

$30,344

$30,511

0.1%

-0.4%

Toyota

$34,708

$33,437

$34,984

3.8%

-0.8%

Volkswagen Group

$44,496

$41,017

$43,704

8.5%

1.8%

Industry

$37,549

$36,364

$37,780

3.3%

-0.6%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$4,825

$6,318

$5,238

-23.6%

-7.9%

Daimler

$3,799

$5,722

$3,948

-33.6%

-3.8%

Ford

$3,144

$4,024

$3,388

-21.9%

-7.2%

GM

$4,982

$5,306

$4,533

-6.1%

9.9%

Honda

$2,193

$2,715

$2,365

-19.3%

-7.3%

Hyundai

$2,266

$2,204

$2,268

2.8%

-0.1%

Kia

$2,454

$3,863

$2,677

-36.5%

-8.3%

Nissan

$3,514

$4,697

$3,758

-25.2%

-6.5%

Stellantis

$4,345

$4,956

$4,628

-12.3%

-6.1%

Subaru

$1,273

$1,607

$1,321

-20.8%

-3.6%

Toyota

$2,625

$2,659

$2,548

-1.3%

3.0%

Volkswagen Group

$4,100

$4,502

$3,714

-8.9%

10.4%

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Mar 2021 Forecast

Mar 2020 Actual

Feb 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

7.9%

10.5%

8.6%

-24.6%

-8.3%

Daimler

6.1%

9.6%

6.4%

-36.1%

-3.7%

Ford

7.1%

9.4%

7.7%

-24.5%

-7.5%

GM

11.9%

13.0%

10.9%

-8.7%

8.7%

Honda

6.9%

9.1%

7.4%

-24.8%

-7.2%

Hyundai

7.5%

7.8%

7.4%

-3.7%

0.7%

Kia

8.6%

14.7%

9.4%

-41.5%

-8.7%

Nissan

11.9%

16.8%

12.8%

-29.2%

-6.9%

Stellantis

10.1%

12.1%

10.8%

-16.9%

-6.9%

Subaru

4.2%

5.3%

4.3%

-20.9%

-3.3%

Toyota

7.6%

8.0%

7.3%

-4.9%

3.8%

Volkswagen Group

9.2%

11.0%

8.5%

-16.1%

8.4%

Industry

8.9%

11.1%

9.1%

-19.4%

-1.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

YoY % Change

YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

76,519

64,692

107,299

18.3%

21.5%

-28.7%

-23.9%

Daimler

67,370

68,770

94,098

-2.0%

0.6%

-28.4%

-23.6%

Ford

503,159

514,614

538,643

-2.2%

0.4%

-6.6%

-0.3%

GM

626,335

616,432

767,444

1.6%

4.4%

-18.4%

-12.9%

Honda

338,615

298,784

366,068

13.3%

16.4%

-7.5%

-1.2%

Hyundai

165,313

134,830

183,943

22.6%

25.9%

-10.1%

-4.1%

Kia

150,935

137,945

157,755

9.4%

12.4%

-4.3%

2.1%

Nissan

263,116

257,606

243,133

2.1%

4.9%

8.2%

15.5%

Stellantis

451,749

448,798

495,180

0.7%

3.4%

-8.8%

-2.6%

Subaru

157,977

130,591

175,382

21.0%

24.2%

-9.9%

-3.8%

Tesla

70,763

56,200

68,200

25.9%

29.3%

3.8%

10.8%

Toyota

584,150

495,578

660,715

17.9%

21.1%

-11.6%

-5.6%

Volkswagen Group

148,135

129,072

172,464

14.8%

17.9%

-14.1%

-8.3%

Industry

3,766,406

3,506,683

4,196,656

7.4%

10.3%

-10.3%

-4.2%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

YoY % Change

YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

75,176

58,447

102,914

28.6%

32.1%

-27.0%

-22.0%

Daimler

65,992

64,364

89,982

2.5%

5.3%

-26.7%

-21.7%

Ford

383,448

339,544

435,547

12.9%

16.0%

-12.0%

-6.0%

GM

532,622

453,338

664,280

17.5%

20.7%

-19.8%

-14.4%

Honda

337,202

295,359

363,713

14.2%

17.3%

-7.3%

-1.0%

Hyundai

151,012

109,842

161,936

37.5%

41.2%

-6.7%

-0.4%

Kia

133,035

116,219

146,962

14.5%

17.6%

-9.5%

-3.4%

Nissan

185,337

176,354

202,259

5.1%

7.9%

-8.4%

-2.2%

Stellantis

380,172

318,416

426,872

19.4%

22.6%

-10.9%

-4.9%

Subaru

152,088

122,904

172,045

23.7%

27.1%

-11.6%

-5.6%

Tesla

70,739

55,752

67,774

26.9%

30.3%

4.4%

11.4%

Toyota

508,512

417,544

604,441

21.8%

25.1%

-15.9%

-10.2%

Volkswagen Group

145,914

114,415

155,509

27.5%

31.0%

-6.2%

0.2%

Industry

3,249,708

2,756,031

3,736,505

17.9%

21.1%

-13.0%

-7.2%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

BMW

2.0%

1.8%

2.6%

Daimler

1.8%

2.0%

2.2%

Ford

13.4%

14.7%

12.8%

GM

16.6%

17.6%

18.3%

Honda

9.0%

8.5%

8.7%

Hyundai

4.4%

3.8%

4.4%

Kia

4.0%

3.9%

3.8%

Nissan

7.0%

7.3%

5.8%

Stellantis

12.0%

12.8%

11.8%

Subaru

4.2%

3.7%

4.2%

Tesla

1.9%

1.6%

1.6%

Toyota

15.5%

14.1%

15.7%

Volkswagen Group

3.9%

3.7%

4.1%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

BMW

2.3%

2.1%

2.8%

Daimler

2.0%

2.3%

2.4%

Ford

11.8%

12.3%

11.7%

GM

16.4%

16.4%

17.8%

Honda

10.4%

10.7%

9.7%

Hyundai

4.6%

4.0%

4.3%

Kia

4.1%

4.2%

3.9%

Nissan

5.7%

6.4%

5.4%

Stellantis

11.7%

11.6%

11.4%

Subaru

4.7%

4.5%

4.6%

Tesla

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%

Toyota

15.6%

15.2%

16.2%

Volkswagen Group

4.5%

4.2%

4.2%

Average Transaction Price (ATP) , Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

YoY % Change

QoQ % Change

BMW

$60,226

$58,116

$59,855

3.6%

0.6%

Daimler

$62,185

$60,718

$59,049

2.4%

5.3%

Stellantis

$44,040

$42,568

$43,839

3.5%

0.5%

Ford

$41,752

$40,011

$43,725

4.4%

-4.5%

GM

$31,707

$29,423

$38,035

7.8%

-16.6%

Honda

$30,566

$28,733

$30,683

6.4%

-0.4%

Hyundai

$28,472

$25,970

$28,595

9.6%

-0.4%

Kia

$29,414

$28,621

$28,790

2.8%

2.2%

Nissan

$42,874

$40,440

$35,349

6.0%

21.3%

Subaru

$30,489

$30,100

$30,583

1.3%

-0.3%

Toyota

$34,850

$33,415

$35,330

4.3%

-1.4%

Volkswagen Group

$43,931

$40,633

$42,788

8.1%

2.7%

Industry

$37,631

$35,910

$38,224

4.8%

-1.6%

Incentives, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q1 2021

Q1 2020

Q4 2020

YoY % Change

QoQ % Change

BMW

$5,058

$5,943

$5,409

-14.9%

-6.5%

Daimler

$4,015

$6,114

$4,795

-34.3%

-16.3%

Stellantis

$3,562

$4,696

$4,661

-24.2%

-23.6%

Ford

$4,818

$5,587

$4,631

-13.8%

4.0%

GM

$2,296

$2,586

$4,102

-11.2%

-44.0%

Honda

$2,342

$2,863

$2,548

-18.2%

-8.1%

Hyundai

$2,671

$3,730

$2,705

-28.4%

-1.2%

Kia

$3,854

$4,766

$3,896

-19.1%

-1.1%

Nissan

$4,519

$5,037

$4,671

-10.3%

-3.3%

Subaru

$1,349

$1,335

$1,575

1.1%

-14.3%

Toyota

$2,596

$2,661

$2,714

-2.4%

-4.3%

Volkswagen Group

$3,981

$4,443

$4,300

-10.4%

-7.4%

Industry

$3,490

$4,130

$3,912

-15.5%

-10.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter

 

Cision View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-total-new-vehicle-sales-up-42-year-over-year-for-march-2021-in-first-year-over-year-compare-since-covid-19-impact-on-industry-301255643.html

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.



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