Cogitativo Releases New Report Projecting Severe COVID-19 Vaccine Shortages In U.S. Counties Under Current State Distribution Protocols

"No Relief In Sight" recommends an alternative distribution approach based on science and data that will prevent county deficits, limit hospitalizations and save lives

February 24, 2021 7:00 AM EST

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BERKELEY, Calif., Feb. 24, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Cogitativo, a data science company using machine learning technology to support COVID-19 vaccine distribution efforts, today released a new report that identifies the U.S. counties at greatest risk of acute vaccine deficits under existing state distribution protocols.

The report, "No Relief in Sight: The Growing Crisis of Vaccine Shortages in U.S. Counties," compares the allocation strategy recommended by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which determines county-level allocation based on pre-determined priority populations and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), with a more surgical distribution model developed by Cogitativo, which determines county-level allocation based on clinical data, social determinants of health (SDOH) and peer-reviewed medical literature on COVID-19 and other coronaviruses. Assuming an available national supply of 100 million doses for comparative purposes, the report simulates both approaches for the 10 most populous states. 

Key findings from the report include:

  • 34 percent of counties in the 10 most populous states are likely to see a vaccine shortage under the ACIP approach.
  • There will be a total combined shortage of 4.9 million doses for all counties that are likely to see deficits under the ACIP approach.
  • A total of more than 4.4 million additional hospitalizations can be prevented by using a distribution model based on clinical data and social determinants of health compared to ACIP's model.
  • A total of more than 639,680 additional lives can be saved by using a distribution model based on clinical data and social determinants of health compared to ACIP's model.

"The data is clear: Without a more precise approach to allocating the vaccine, many of the most vulnerable — often in communities of color and rural areas — will be overlooked," said Gary Velasquez, CEO of Cogitativo. "To meet the most complex public health challenge of our time, states must use the most powerful, precise tools available so that every resident, whether they live in a city or in a rural community, has equal access to the vaccine."   

"Access to the COVID-19 vaccine should not depend on where you live," said Dr. Meredith Mathews, former Chief Medical Officer of Blue Shield of California. "Using science and data can help states ensure that everyone has access, and that no community is left behind."

The 10 counties at risk of the most severe vaccine deficits are: 1.      Los Angeles, CA2.      Orange, CA3.      Santa Clara, CA4.      Miami-Dade, FL5.      San Diego, CA6.      New York, NY7.      Alameda, CA8.      Harris, TX9.      Travis, TX10.  Broward, FL

Click here to read No Relief in Sight: The Growing Crisis of Vaccine Shortages in U.S. Counties.

About Cogitativo Inc.Cogitativo is a Berkeley-based data science company founded in 2015 with a mission to create and implement innovative, scalable solutions to the most complex challenges facing the healthcare system. Leveraging machine learning, proprietary data sets and expertise from leaders with decades of experience working with public health agencies, Cogitativo is able to deliver actionable insights and save lives. To date, Cogitativo has successfully applied data science solutions to more than 200 unique operational challenges to significantly improve the efficiency of our healthcare systems and protect vulnerable patients and communities. Visit for more information.

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SOURCE Cogitativo, Inc.

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