S&P 500 on Track for Worst First-Half in 60 Years

June 30, 2022 11:46 AM EDT

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Unless the S&P 500 recovers from its current intra-day decline of 1%, it will be the worst 1st-half since 1962 and the worst June since 2008, according to Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

As of last night’s close, the S&P 500 would have closed the month down 7.58%, the worst June since 2008 (-8.60%).

Below are some other stats from S&P Dow Jones Indices:

  • June 2022:
    • All 11 sectors down, 53 issues up and 449 down
    • Worst June since 2008’s -8.60%
  • Q2 2022
    • On track to end -15.71%, with all 11 sectors down
    • Would mark the worst Q2 since 1970 (-18.87%)
  • 2022 YTD
    • The S&P has lost $8.17 trillion
    • 10 of the 11 sectors down (Energy being the only positive sector with a gain of 31.90%)
    • The worst start to the year since 1962’s -20.47%
  • Last 4th of July, investors were opening their half-year statements with a 15.70% gain, now it’s a 19.88% decline.
  • While the market is down YTD, aggregate wealth (much of it built up over the past few years, but not evenly distributed) is up (with the help of higher home prices and prior lower spending), as employment and employment demand remain high (although there are selected signs of a slowing). These factors, may permit a recession to be avoided, limited or short-lived.
  • At this point, the key factors are:
    • How consumers react to inflation (this week’s Consumer Confidence level was, in a word, terrible, a 16-month low), even as they spend through the summer
    • If the expected two 0.75% FOMC interest rate increases (July 27 and September 21) permit a pause
    • If (overall) inflation data plateaus

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