Vail Resorts (MTN) Misses Q4 EPS by 3c, Revenue Beats

September 23, 2021 4:07 PM EDT

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Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) reported Q4 EPS of ($3.49), $0.03 worse than the analyst estimate of ($3.46). Revenue for the quarter came in at $204.2 million versus the consensus estimate of $185.9 million.

Guidance:

Commenting on guidance for fiscal 2022, Katz said, "As we head into fiscal 2022, we are encouraged by the robust demand from our guests, the strength of our advance commitment product sales and our continued focus on enhancing the guest experience while maintaining our cost discipline. Our guidance for net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. is estimated to be between $278 million and $349 million for fiscal 2022. We estimate Resort Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2022 will be between $785 million and $835 million. We estimate Resort EBITDA Margin for fiscal 2022 to be approximately 32.1%, using the midpoint of the guidance range, which is negatively impacted as a result of COVID-19 impacts associated with Australia in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 and the anticipated slower recovery in international visitation and group/conference business. We estimate Real Estate Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2022 to be between negative $6 million and $0 million. The guidance assumes normal weather conditions, a continuation of the current economic environment and no material impacts associated with COVID-19 for the 2021/2022 North American ski season or the 2022 Australian ski season other than an expected slower recovery for international visitation, which is expected to have a disproportionate impact at Whistler Blackcomb, and group/conference business, which is expected to have a disproportionate impact in our Lodging segment. At Whistler Blackcomb, we estimate the upcoming winter season will generate approximately $27 million lower Resort Reported EBITDA relative to the comparable period in fiscal 2019, primarily driven by the anticipated reduction in international visitation.

"Fiscal 2022 guidance includes an expectation that the first quarter of fiscal 2022 will generate net loss attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. between $156 million and $136 million and Resort Reported EBITDA between negative $118 million and negative $106 million. We estimate the negative impacts of COVID-19 in Australia and the associated limitations and restrictions, including the current lockdowns, will have a negative Resort Reported EBITDA impact of approximately $41 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 as compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2020.

"There continues to be uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of COVID-19 on our business results in fiscal year 2022, including any response to changing COVID-19 guidance and regulations by the various governmental bodies that regulate our operations and resort communities, as well as changes in consumer behavior resulting from COVID-19, which are not factored into the guidance and could negatively impact it. The guidance assumes an exchange rate of $0.80 between the Canadian Dollar and U.S. Dollar related to the operations of Whistler Blackcomb in Canada and an exchange rate of $0.74 between the Australian Dollar and U.S. Dollar related to the operations of Perisher, Falls Creek and Hotham in Australia."

The following table reflects the forecasted guidance range for the Company's fiscal 2022 first quarter ending October 31, 2021 and full year ending July 31, 2022, for Reported EBITDA (after stock-based compensation expense) and reconciles net (loss) income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. guidance to such Reported EBITDA guidance.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Vail Resorts (MTN) click here.



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