Boston Beer Co. (SAM) Lowers FY21 EPS Guidance

Boston Beer Co. (NYSE: SAM) disclosed:

Full Year 2021 Projections

Since the Company’s last guidance update on October 21, 2021 for fiscal year 2021 financial performance, consumer demand for the Company’s products, as evidenced by depletion growth, has been at the high end of the Company’s expectations. However, the Company now estimates that shipment growth for the Company’s products and gross margins will be below guidance. The estimated lower shipment growth is primarily a result of more aggressive wholesaler inventory reduction than expected, primarily affecting Truly. Additionally, due to higher than expected supply chain costs, which include costs for additional damaged and expired inventory resulting from the lower shipment volumes, we estimate gross margins to be lower than expected. These factors have resulted in the following updated guidance for 2021.

Based on information currently in hand, the Company projects full year 2021 earnings per diluted share to be between a loss of $1.00 and income of $1.00, a decrease from the prior guidance of income between $2.00 and $6.00. This projection excludes the impact of ASU 2016-09.

(Consensus sees FY EPS of $5.02)

The Company’s financial closing procedures for the full year 2021 are not yet complete. Our actual results may change as a result of such financial closing procedures, final adjustments, management's review of results, and other developments that may arise between now and the time our financial results for the full year 2021 are finalized, and our results could be outside of the range set forth above and different than the estimates below.

Underlying the Company’s current 2021 projection are the following full-year estimates:


Depletions increase of between 21% and 22%.

Shipments increase of between 15% and 16%.

National price increases of between 2% and 3%.

Gross margin of between 38% and 40%.

Increased investments in advertising, promotional and selling expenses of between $85million and $95 million. This does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to the Company’s distributors.

Non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 43%, excluding the impact of ASU 2016-09.

Estimated capital spending of between $145 million and $150 million.

Preliminary 2022 Outlook

The Company is completing its 2022 planning process and will provide further guidance regarding fiscal year 2022 financial performance when the Company presents its full-year 2021 results on February 16, 2022. Based on information of which it is currently aware, the Company is continuing to use the following preliminary assumptions and targets for its 2022 fiscal year, which have not changed since the Company’s guidance update on October 21, 2021, but continue to be highly sensitive to changes in volume projections.


Depletions and shipments percentage increase of between mid-single digits and low double-digits.

National price increases of between 3% and 6%.

Gross margin of between 45% and 48%.

Increased investments in advertising, promotional and selling expenses of between $10 million and $30 million. This does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to the Company’s distributors.

Non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 26%, excluding the impact of ASU 2016-09. This effective tax rate also excludes any potential future changes to current federal income tax rates and regulations.

Estimated capital spending of between $140 million and $190 million, which could be significantly higher, if deemed necessary to meet future growth.

You May Also Be Interested In

• Growth isn't weak enough to truly undercut inflation pressures - BMO
• Boston Beer (SAM) Debuts General Admission
• BCB Bancorp (BCBP) Misses Q1 EPS by 2c