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Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Finally Turn the Corner with 7.3% Growth Forecast in Q4 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, According to IDC Mobile Phone Tracker

November 29, 2023 3:38 PM EST

NEEDHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to see 7.3% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The improved forecast for the holiday quarter follows the modest improvement in 3Q23 without further inventory buildup, which has led some channels and major OEMs to ramp up their business plans for the months ahead. The market recovery will continue in 2024 with 3.8% growth expected, followed by low single-digit growth for the rest of the forecast period, resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.4%.

Despite improved expectations for 4Q23, worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 3.5% year over year in 2023 to 1.16 billion units. The revised forecast for 2023 is an improvement over the decline of 4.7% forecast earlier in the year.

"The tide has finally turned and it feels safe to say the worst is behind us," said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "While the rate of recovery varies across regions, the changed sentiment is most apparent in China, where consumers are finally coming out of their shells and spending on devices, fueled by the excitement from Huawei's resurgence, which is in turn expected to have a positive impact on the larger Android market in the long-term. More importantly, as we enter the new era of low single-digit growth and lengthened refresh cycles, it is clear the market is maturing. While the total available market will remain below pre-pandemic shipment levels throughout the forecast, the bright side is that average selling prices (ASPs) and market value will remain notably higher than before."

Smartphone ASP is expected to rise 5.5% in 2023 to $438, marking a fourth consecutive year of growth as the premium market continues to grow across all regions. However, ASP growth is expected to taper off and gradually decline to $396 by 2027, which remains higher than prior forecasts. From an operating systems (OS) perspective, iOS remains more resilient to macro challenges with 0.6% growth, achieving a record share of 19.6% this year, while Android is forecast to decline 4.4%. Over the long term, Android will grow slightly faster than iOS, increasing its share of the market to 81.3% by the end of the forecast period.

"Despite another lackluster year for smartphones, 5G adoption continues to be a bright spot in the overall market," said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "With 5G devices becoming less relevant in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a crucial part in the rebound next year and throughout the forecast period. Global 5G shipments are expected to grow 11% in 2023 and 20% in 2024. Moreover, the share of 5G smartphones will jump from 61% in 2023 to 83% by 2027. While the smartphone will witness a small 1.4% CAGR from 2022-2027, 5G shipments will demonstrate an impressive 11.1% growth rate for the same period."

A graphic illustrating worldwide smartphone shipments and ASPs by operating system (Android and iOS) for 2019-2027 is available by viewing this press release on IDC.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

For more information about IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and [email protected].

Click here to learn about IDC's full suite of data products and how you can leverage them to grow your business.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

Nabila Popal
[email protected]
+1 571-373-1816

Ryan Reith
[email protected]
+1 508-935-4301

Anthony Scarsella
[email protected]
+1 508-935-4712

Michael Shirer
[email protected]
+1 508-935-4200

Source: International Data Corporation



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