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Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Drop 13% Year Over Year As Mortgage Rates Stay Stubbornly High

September 22, 2023 8:00 AM EDT

With monthly housing payments at an all-time high, would-be buyers are waiting for homes to become more affordable

New listings ticked up slightly this month, providing a glimmer of hope for buyers who want more to choose from

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —Mortgage rates are sitting near a two-decade high and U.S. home prices rose 3% year over year during the four weeks ending September 17, pushing monthly housing payments to an all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

What homebuyers are doing: Waiting for homes to become more affordable and for more of them to hit the market. Soaring costs have pushed pending home sales down 13% from a year ago. The total number of homes for sale is down 16%, as many homeowners stay put to keep relatively low mortgage rates.

What home sellers are doing: A few more home sellers have jumped off the sidelines. New listings have stabilized, ticking up slightly since the beginning of September. They’re down 7% from a year earlier, but that’s the smallest decline since July 2022 (though it’s worth noting that new listings were falling rapidly at this time last year). It’s possible that some homeowners are taking advantage of rising home prices and low inventory, counting on being one of the only homes for sale in their neighborhood.

Where the Fed comes in: The Federal Reserve decided against an interest-rate hike at their meeting this week. But they also signaled that interest rates are likely to remain higher than anticipated into 2024 and 2025, which could keep borrowing costs—and mortgage rates—higher for longer. Buyers who are waiting for housing costs to come down may consider jumping into the market if they can afford to, because a meaningful decline probably isn’t coming soon.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.47% (Sept. 21)

Near the two-decade high of 7.49%, hit a month earlier

Up from about 6.4%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.19% (week ending Sept. 21)

Flat from 7.18% a week earlier; 6th straight week of rates above 7%

Up from 6.02%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Up 2% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 15)

Down 26%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 4% from a month earlier (as of the 4 weeks ending Sept. 17), close to its lowest level since January

Down 11%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Down 13% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 16)

Down 14%

Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending September 17, 2023

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

 

Four weeks ending September 17

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$374,975

3.4%

Smallest increase in a month. Median sale prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year.

Median asking price

$386,589

4.5%

Biggest increase in nearly a year

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,661 at a 7.19% mortgage rate

12%

All-time high

Pending sales

78,750

-12.7%

 

New listings

81,732

-6.7%

Smallest decline in over a year, but that’s partly because new listings fell rapidly at this time in 2022

Active listings

806,701

-16.2%

 

Months of supply

3.1 months

Unchanged

Highest level since March.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

38%

+0.3 pts.

 

Median days on market

30

-1 day

 

Share of homes sold above list price

32.3%

Unchanged

 

Share of homes with a price drop

6.4%

+0.3 pts.

 

Average sale-to-list price ratio

99.5%

+0.2 pts.

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending September 17, 2023

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year declines

Notes

Median sale price

Miami (14.4%)

San Diego (11.5%)

Anaheim, CA (11.1%)

Newark, NJ (11%)

New Brunswick, NJ (9.8%)

Austin, TX (-4.5%)

Fort Worth, TX (-2.2%)

Phoenix (-1.7%)

San Antonio, TX (-1.6%)

Portland, OR (-1.2%) 

 

Declined in 8 metros

Pending sales

n/a

Seattle (-25.8%)

San Antonio, TX (-24.7%)

Atlanta (-24.4%)

San Diego (-23.2%)

Sacramento, CA (-21.7%)

 

Declined in all metros

New listings

Miami (3.2%)

Milwaukee (2.6%)

San Jose, CA (2.3%)

Houston (1.8%)

San Antonio, TX (1.3%)

 

Atlanta (-28.2%)

Las Vegas (-22%)

Riverside, CA (-21.2%)

Portland, OR (-20.4%)

New Brunswick, NJ (-16%)

Declined in all but 8 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-down-mortgage-rates-high

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 5,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-588-6863
[email protected]

Source: Redfin



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