Wells Fargo Puts Fed Funds Peak at 4-4.25 Percent, 'We expected a downshift to 50 bps at the November FOMC'

September 21, 2022 3:21 PM EDT
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Wells Fargo Chief Economist Jay Bryson comments "At the start of the year, the Federal Reserve was still easing monetary policy via purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. Just nine months later, the median FOMC participant expects the federal funds rate to finish the year 4.4%, a rate not seen since 2007. In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chair Powell made clear that the ongoing fight against inflation will not be won easily, and today's FOMC meeting reinforces that policymakers are prepared for restrictive policy well beyond 2022. At some point, the FOMC will feel comfortable enough to slow the pace of tightening from 75 bps per meeting to 50 bps or 25 bps. We expected a downshift to 50 bps at the November FOMC meeting, but with today's dot plot in hand and just one CPI report between now and the November meeting, another 75 bps rate hike is squarely on the table. The balance of risks are clearly tilted to the upside for our current forecast of a peak fed funds rate of 4.00%-4.25%."

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