Top Tesla (TSLA) Analysts Discuss Q2 Deliveries and What's Next for the EV Giant

July 5, 2022 8:16 AM EDT
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Over the weekend, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announced it managed to deliver 254,695 electric vehicles (EVs) in the second quarter, which marks an increase of 27% on a year-to-year basis.

Still, the reported number came in below average estimates compiled by Bloomberg and Reuters as Covid lockdowns weighed on Tesla’s Shanghai plant.

Here are comments from the top Wall Street analysts following Tesla.

Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney: “We believe that the record production in June is a sign that Shanghai is ramping back up well and that the company has made progress recently at its Berlin and Austin factories. We expect deliveries and the factory ramps to be a focus for investors going forward (along with cost and margins). We lower our 2022 EPS estimate driven by 2Q (with lower units, a lower gross margin, and restructuring/impairment charges partly offset by higher ASPs and lower opex). We modestly raise our 2023/2024 EPS estimates on lower opex.”

Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner: “We think the delta between our estimate and Tesla’s final delivery could be due to better contribution from Berlin/Texas. Model 3+Y deliveries came in at 238,533, above our 232k while Model S+X deliveries were also ahead, at 16,162 units vs. our estimate of 13,250. We raise our 2Q revenue forecast from $15.5bn to $16.1bn and our gross margin by 80bps to 26.8% (ex credit), leading toEPS of $1.87 vs. prior $1.66.”

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives: “We believe already baked into the stock at current levels after significant weakness seen the last few months is a lower delivery trajectory and headline hit to numbers for the June quarter. The Street is now focused on 2H (likely up 40%-50% from 1H barring no more major China zero Covid issues) deliveries and 2023 numbers as a more normalized environment to gauge the overall health of Tesla's delivery trajectory and top-line/EPS. We also note that while Giga Berlin and Austin factories are in significant ramp mode, this is a significant production capacity expansion for 2023 and beyond.”

JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman (cuts the price target to $385.00 from $395.00): “We are lowering our estimate of 2Q EPS to $1.70 from $2.26 at the time of 1Q earnings… We suspect that the interplay of price and cost may matter most for Tesla earnings this year. This interplay we believe presents downside risk to 2Q, given that Tesla experienced sharp battery metals inflation (as well as higher other commodity and non-commodity supply chain costs) but the price hikes of upwards of $10K it announced across its lineup generally apply only to new orders and not to existing reservations (as Rivian tried unsuccessfully earlier this year); however, as the year progresses, this pricing tailwind — should it stick — could meet positively with more recently receding battery metals costs.”

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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