Tesla (TSLA) Stock Gains After Topping Q3 Delivery Estimates, Analyst Expects 'Massive' 4Q

Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) are up almost 2% in pre-open Monday after the company presented higher-than-expected 3Q delivery numbers.

Elon Musk and Co. produced roughly 238,000 vehicles and delivered over 241,000 vehicles (a new quarterly record) to easily top the Street’s estimate of 220,000 deliveries.

"Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more,” the company said in a statement.

RBC analyst Joseph Spak reiterated a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target to $755.00 per share from the prior $745.00 after revising estimates.

“Based primarily on updated deliveries our 3Q21 revenue estimate goes to $14.4bn from $12.7bn which compares to consensus of $13.1bn. We model $400mm of credits. We model auto-gross margins ex- credits at 27.5%. Our diluted adjusted EPS goes to $1.95 from $1.68 vs. consensus of $1.47. Our diluted GAAP EPS estimate is $1.40. Forecasted FCF is ~$1bn (consensus looks too low at $190mm). We now model 262.5k deliveries in 4Q21 (consensus at 254k) bringing our 2021 forecast to ~890k. For 2022, we are at 1.2mm (LSD% above consensus) though we did push out Cybertruck and Semi deliveries until 2023. Our 2025 delivery forecast remains 1.8mm units (consensus is 2.4mm) but we do forecast slightly higher revenue, EBITDA and EPS than prior as we tweaked ATP and margin assumptions,” Spak explained in a note sent to clients.

Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdry urges investors to “aggressively buy” Tesla stock ahead of a “massive” 4Q. The analyst has a $1,000.00 per share price target on the Overweight-rated TSLA.

Chowdry notes that Tesla is experiencing a “very very strong” demand for Model S Plaid, which is a high-margin business. TSLA sold 9,275 of these units in 3Q.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and a $764.00 per share price target on demonstrated operational strength.

"Like the last couple quarters, strong deliveries continue to demonstrate the company’s ability to effectively manage around industry-wide semiconductor shortages and shipping issues to achieve another record delivery quarter. We estimate that underlying demand for Tesla products remains strong with S/X, Cybertruck, and semi deliveries remaining tailwinds," Kallo said in a note sent to clients.

Tesla stock price is up over 6% YTD.

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