Tesla (TSLA) Data Points and Musings - Morgan Stanley
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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $880.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) offering 6 Key considerations but many tidbits of information within the note:
- Consensus (collected by the company) is 174 for 1Q and 831 for the full year.
- The analyst sees any full year guidance between 750 to 800k strong enough to satisfy the Street
- The analyst is expecting capacity to reach 3mm units by 2025 (including 500k each at Berlin
- and Austin, 3 China plants and a 2nd EU plant)
- Semi production (if announced) represents upside despite the Electrek article stating that Tesla is building a new assembly line near the Nevada battery plant with a goal of producing 5 Semi trucks/week
- Transportation resembling more 'utility-like' characteristics could test today's commercial flexibility. The analyst sees transport, over time, becoming more like telecom and electricity/water, where services tend to
- be provided by national/domestic providers in most countries
- competition from legacy players is serious but the more significant long term threat is the encroachment of the world’s largest, most technologically capable and well capitalized tech firms
- Tesla Network Services (revenue derived from autonomy/FSD, charging, maintenance, upgrades, content, licensing, etc.) should rise from around 2% of revenues (and approx. 6% of EBITDA) to between 6% and 10% of revenue and 20% to 30% of EBITDA by 2030
Shares of Tesla closed at $636.70 yesterday.
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