Moderna (MRNA) Announces 500M Dose Vaccine Supply Agreement with Gavi for Lowest Income Countries, Analyst Bullish

May 3, 2021 11:32 AM EDT
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Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) announced an agreement with “Gavi”, the Vaccine Alliance, to supply up to 500 million doses of its COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna to low-and middle-income countries. With this deal, MRNA has commitments to supply 833 million doses by the end of 2021.

An initial 34 million doses will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021, with up to 466 million available for 2022. Moreover, Sweden has donated 1 million AstraZeneca shots to the global COVAX program.

“We recognize that many countries have limited resources to access COVID-19 vaccines. We support COVAX’s mission to ensure broad, affordable and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines and we remain committed to doing everything that we can to ending this ongoing pandemic with our mRNA COVID-19 vaccine,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna, said.

Moderna said that the agreement covers the 92 Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) low- and middle-income countries.

Brookline Capital Markets analyst Leah Rush Cann says the latest deal provides a basis for upside to the firm’s outlook for MRNA.

“We currently estimate that Moderna will sell and deliver an estimated 780 million doses of mRNA-1273 from December 2020 to the end of 2021, and an estimated 689.5 million doses in 2022. This is slightly below the newly announced 2021 range of production levels of doses up to a minimum of 800 million in 2021, and well below the newly announced 2022 level of being able to deliver up to 3.0 billion doses in 2022. Importantly, our estimate is lower than contracted 2021 supply contracts and 2022 supply contracts with options; therefore, affording upside to our estimates,” the analyst said in a memo.

Rush Cann rates the stock with a “Buy” rating and a 12-18 month $205.00 target price.

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