Match (MTCH) slumps 10% on Q4 miss and lower guidance, analyst reactions mixed

January 31, 2023 4:42 PM EST
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(Updated - February 1, 2023 4:58 AM EST)

Shares of Match Group (NASDAQ: MTCH) are down almost 10% in pre-market Wednesday following a miss in the fourth quarter and lower guidance for the current quarter.

Revenue for the match-making leader fell 2% to $786 million, just below the consensus of $786.89M. Tinder Direct Revenue was flat over the prior year quarter with 3% Payers growth to 10.8M, offset by RPP declines of 2%.

EPS was $0.30, versus the consensus of $0.46. Operating income was $107M, a 54% decrease over the prior year's quarter, representing an operating margin of 14%.

Overall payers declined 1% to 16.1M versus last year.

"While our 2022 performance was below what we expect of ourselves, we made corrective changes and feel this organization is gaining momentum as we start 2023," CEO Bernard Kim stated. "Tinder is beginning to execute on its clearly defined product roadmap and is ready to launch a bold new marketing campaign. Exciting things are happening elsewhere in the portfolio as well. Hinge is on fire, with its expansion rolling across Europe at breakneck speed, and our new bets, including The League, Chispa, and BLK, continue to succeed."

For the current quarter (Q1), the company sees revenue of $790-$800M versus the consensus of $816M.

For Tinder, they expect Direct Revenue to be up slightly year-over-year. They expect Hinge Direct Revenue growth to be up more than 25% year-over-year.

"As we start 2023, the macroeconomic pressures we are seeing in our business thus far are in line with our expectations," the company stated. "We expect at least the first half of 2023 to remain challenging, but we expect to build momentum as the year progresses and remain confident in our ability to deliver on our full-year financial outlook."

For full-year 2023, Match is reaffirming its focus on delivering 5% to 10% year-over-year growth, in both Match Group Total Revenue and Tinder Direct Revenue. The company has undertaken a company-wide cost review to reduce marketing spend, headcount, and overhead expenses such as office expenses and professional fees.

Goldman Sachs analyst Alexandra Steiger said the initial negative reaction in MTCH stock was expected.

"While the company's Q4 results (revenue and Adj. OI) were largely inline/ better than feared, management's Q1'23 guidance came in below expectations (with Q1 revenues expected to be flat YoY and with an Adj. OI margin of ~32% at mid-point)," Steiger wrote in a note to clients.

KeyBanc analyst Justin Peterson weighed in positively as he believes Match posted "largely fine" Q4 results while guidance appears somewhat conservative.

"Based on Match's shareholder letter, our sense is nothing has materially changed from the preliminary guidance, and that management is likely layering in some conservatism around marketing investments while refraining from flowing through a more favorable FX environment," the analyst said.

By Staff

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