Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Dips as Goldman Cuts to Neutral on More Balanced Risk-Reward

September 27, 2022 9:39 AM EDT
Get Alerts KDP Hot Sheet
Price: $38.02 -0.47%

Rating Summary:
    9 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 5 | Down: 13 | New: 17
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Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog slashed the rating on Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) to Neutral from Buy, sending the company’s shares nearly 1.5% lower today.

Herzog blames the downgrade on a “more balanced risk/reward” on expectations that brewer household penetration and pod attach rates will moderate going forward. Moreover, the analyst sees a slowdown period for the company’s packaged beverage business growth amid a challenging macro environment.

“We see increased risk to KDP’s margins as commodity inflation, especially related to coffee, remains elevated for KDP vs its peers based on our updated commodity tracker,” Herzog said in a client note.

The analyst also slashed the price target to $37 from $39 to reflect modestly lowered FY22 & FY23 estimates, but enough to put Goldman below consensus.

“With limited n.t. positive catalysts and the stock trading at a 6% premium to its beverage peers on a FY23 P/E multiple basis (vs its avg 3-year discount of 2%), we see a better risk/reward elsewhere and therefore move to the sidelines on KDP,” Herzog concluded.

KDP shares are almost flat YTD.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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Goldman Sachs, Senad Karaahmetovic