KGI's Kuo Lists 10 Predictions for the New Apple (AAPL) iPhone
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KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo lists his 10 predictions for the new Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone models coming this year.
(1) Apple will roll out three iPhone models in 2H17, including an all-new design 5.2” (or 5.8” depending on the definition of screen size in use) OLED iPhone & LCD models including 4.7” & 5.5” (front form factor deisgn similar to current ones).
(2) OLED iPhone will adopt full-screen design, with the highest screen-to-body ratio of any smartphone currently available worldwide (thanks to a notch display design); the OLED model will also come with a virtual Home button, though the button will not support fingerprint recognition. "We predict the OLED model won’t support fingerprint recognition, reasons being: (1) the full-screen design doesn’t work with existing capacitive fingerprint recognition, and (2) the scan-through ability of the under-display fingerprint solution still has technical challenges, including: (i) requirement for a more complex panel pixel design; (ii) disappointing scan-through of OLED panel despite it being thinner than LCD panel; and (iii) weakened scan-through performance due to overlayered panel module. As the new OLED iPhone won’t support under-display fingerprint recognition, we now do not expect production ramp-up will be delayed again (we previously projected the ramp-up would be postponed to late October or later)."
(3) OLED iPhone will support 3D sensing for facial recognition & improved selfie quality.
(4) OLED iPhone & 5.5” LCD iPhone will both come with DRAM capacity of 3GB (for dual-camera requirements), while 4.7” version will only use 2GB DRAM (for only single camera).
(5) Three new models will all come with 64GB and 256GB storage options.
(6) All three new models will have a Lightning port; however, there will be an embedded USB-C power delivery IC for higher charging efficiency.
(7) The output power of the receiver & speaker of OLED iPhone will be more consistent to create better stereo effects.
(8) To maintain its boutique image, we think the OLED version will offer fewer options for casing colors than LCD iPhone models.
(9) We predict October-November & August-September as production ramp-up schedules of OLED iPhone & LCD iPhone, respectively. "For optimized promotional effect, we think Apple may unveil the three models simultaneously in September, though the launch date of the OLED version may trail that of LCD models, and supply tightness may not improve before 1H18."
(10) We forecast shipments of the three new models in 2017F will be 80-85mn units, with an equal split between OLED & LCD versions.
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