JPMorgan's Kolanovic Increasingly Worried About Central Bank Policy Errors

September 30, 2022 12:45 PM EDT
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JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic said the firm is increasingly worried about central banks making a policy error in a note Friday.

The analyst explained that the firm has been above consensus positive this year, with the positive outlook based on an "assumption that central banks will not make a grave policy error, that the war in Europe will de-escalate over the course of the fall/winter season (resulting in only a mild recession in Europe), and that growth in Asia will accelerate significantly in H2."

However, while they still think that Asian growth will be supportive of the global cycle and positioning provides a floor to the market, JPMorgan is "increasingly worried about central banks making a policy error, and of new geopolitical tail risks following the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines."

"Since 2018 we have seen several errors that increased macroeconomic volatility (Q4 2018 tightening into a manufacturing recession, 2021 continued easing into the crypto/NFT/innovation bubble, and now again in 2022 with unprecedented tightening into a slowing economy and the war)," wrote Kolanovic.

"Given the recent escalation in hawkish rhetoric, the likelihood of central banks committing a policy mistake with negative global consequences has increased, and this started showing in various cracks in FX and rates markets. Even if a mistake is avoided, a delay will likely be introduced for the global market and economic recovery," the analyst argued.

By Sam Boughedda

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