Elastic (ESTC) shares drop after guidance cut; Canaccord sees buying opportunity

Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) shares are down over 12% in pre-market Thursday after the company lowered its revenue forecast for the current fiscal year.

The company reported flat adjusted EPS on revenue of $264.4 million for its second fiscal quarter, which compares to the consensus that was looking for a loss per share of $0.10 on revenue of $261.56M.

For its fiscal third quarter, the company sees EPS in the range of $0.04-0.07 on revenue of $272-274M, which compares to the consensus of negative EPS of $0.04 on sales of $277.43M.

Despite better-than-expected FQ2 results, Elastic cut its full-year revenue forecast to the range of $1.067-1.073 billion from the prior $1.08-1.09B range. The company expects to record a flat adjusted EPS (up or down $0.03), which is a much better projection relative to the prior forecast of a $0.31-0.25 loss per share.

Stifel analyst Brad Reback said Elastic remains a “work in progress.” As a result, the analyst cut the price target by 40% to $60 per share.

“While the increased focus on operational discipline will help ease some pain associated with the slowing revenue growth profile, we are lowering our TP,” Reback said.

On the other hand, Canaccord Genuity analyst Kingsley Crane is more optimistic about Elastic and sees “an opportunity here to own more of what we believe can realistically be a 25%+ top-line grower with 10% + EBIT margins in FY24 at ~4x NTM sales and cash-flow-based valuation ~2 years out.”

“It's not perfect, but we think it's time to buy on weakness,” the analyst added in a post-earnings note.

Elastic shares were already down 50% year-to-date into the earnings print.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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