COVID-19 vaccine market could be worth $20 billion in 2021 - Bernstein

August 14, 2020 11:37 AM EDT
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Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal believes that the global market for COVID-19 vaccines could be worth as much as $20 billion in 2021.

The "first wave" of vaccination could generate $20 billion in revenues for the pharmaceutical industry. The U.S. is leading the race to buy vaccines, having already purchased 800M future doses of vaccines.

“US pricing during the first wave is essentially predetermined by purchase agreements. If we assume 10%-20% discounts in other development markets and EM supply at $5/dose (close to cost)," Gal wrote in a note to clients.

The demand is expected to slow down once the development world reaches the vaccination rate of around 50%. Gal believes COVID-19 vaccines could generate $5-$6 billion for the industry after 2021.

"Post-2021 it's just a fog and would be hard to model without some indication of relative efficacy/safety, durability and how much demand will exceed supply in the developed world. For now, we assume six players will be viable competitor for some time, a boost every two years and gradual decline in price," it is added in the note.

The six mentioned players are Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Sanofi (NYSE: SNY). Gal believes that these six drugmakers could deliver over 400 million doses of the vaccine per month by the second quarter next year.

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