BofA lifts Capital One Financial and Discover Financial Services to buy on improving macro outlook

BofA analyst Mihir Bhatia upgraded shares of Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) to Buy in a note Wednesday, stating that we are in the latter stages of the current credit cycle.

The analyst raised the COF price target to $129 from $112 per share and the DFS price target to $116 from $94 per share in the research memo.

"We believe we are in the latter stages of the current credit cycle and expect losses to peak in 2H2024," the BofA analyst argued.

"Historically, stock prices/company valuations appreciate meaningfully as peak delinquencies come into view. We think this could happen in the next 3-6 months and we think it is time to get incrementally more bullish on the credit card stocks," he added.

The firm's constructive view on consumer credit performance in 2024 is driven by both an improving macro outlook and industry-specific drivers.

For COF, the firm noted that its 30-day delinquency trends have been encouraging and increased its confidence that we are in the later stages of the credit cycle.

"COF has noted, and our analysis also indicates delinquency trends are moving closer to typical seasonal patterns, suggesting the post-COVID' credit normalization' or deterioration is ending. COF has also observed some stabilization in early DQ formation, particularly from lower FICO borrower," said Bhatia.

Meanwhile, the firm thinks that beyond the more favorable macro backdrop, "DFS is also likely to benefit from idiosyncratic catalysts including appointment of a permanent CEO, resolving compliance issues, and resumption of the share buyback."

"This should let the focus shift back to DFS's strong business fundamentals and drive a re-rating in shares," the analyst added.

By Sam Boughedda

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