B.Riley Sees Increasing Certainty for Secondary COVID Players Novavax (NVAX) and Altimmune (ALT)
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B.Riley analyst Mayank Mamtani reiterated Buy ratings on Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) and Altimmune (NASDAQ: ALT) on the belief that there is increasing certainty around development-stage C-19 vaccine candidates on the heels of the two key recent updates from EUA-approved C-19 vaccines: 1) Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) C-19 vaccine rollout pause on 4/13 within the U.S. recommended by FDA and CDC based on safety concerns, and 2) Moderna's (NASDAQ: MRNA) Vaccines Day on 4/14 suggesting longer development and regulatory timeframes to mimic those of influenza.
The analyst believes that Novavax is the "only formidable first wave alternative to mRNA vaccines; remain aggressive buyers into imminent Ph. III U.S./Mexico trial data as well as ensuing global regulatory filings." He also "adjusted FCFF by a revenue-weighted approval probability factor that estimates the probability of each of Novavax's vaccine candidates gaining regulatory approval: 75% for Ph. III-stage NanoFlu and 90% for Ph. III-stage NVX-CoV2373, anticipating accelerated approval (EUA) in the mid 2Q time frame."
Altimmune "limits adenoviral vector exposure to nasal tract; fast approaching Ph. I readout to validate differentiated safety and immunogenicity profile. Recall, AdCOVID is an adenovirus-vectored vaccine encoding the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein delivered intranasally with preclinical data suggesting generation of robust IgG-mediated systemic nAbs response and IgA-mediated mucosal immune response."
Shares of Novavax closed at $203.93 yesterday.
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