Apple (AAPL) iPhone 13 Has Strong Start with Positive Mix Skew - JP Morgan

September 20, 2021 8:47 AM EDT
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JP Morgan's Samik Chandarana noted a strong start for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) with sales of the new iPhone 13 with a positive mix skew after checks across the US, China, Germany, and the UK.

"Delivery-at-home timings indicate that demand for the iPhone 13 series has started off strong following the launch, and similar to last year the mix continues to be more favorable towards the Pro models with much longer lead times for Pro and Pro Max relative the remaining SKUs," Chandarana notes. "Delivery lead times in the first weekend post launch are, however, an early indicator, and typically we would expect lead times to expand further by the second weekend."

In the US, Week 1 delivery timing for the 13 mini and 13 was the lowest and stood at 7 days, followed by the 13 Pro at 10 and the 13 Pro Max at 20. This compares in line or favorably relative to the iPhone 12 Series where Week 1 lead times stood at 9 days for 12 mini, 7 for 12, 16 for 12 Pro and 19 for 12 Pro Max. Relative to in-store, the lead time for all models stood at 7 days in Week 1; albeit, with limited SKUs available for the 13 Pro and 13 Pro Max, particularly at the 1TB storage capacity.

The analyst notes the US accounts for ~35% of iPhone shipments.

On the supply chain, the analytes notes that late last week, much of the AAPL supply chain (QCOM, QRVO, SWKS), along with AAPL sold off on likely a “fading of the news”.

Related to Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), there was some concerns when the phone was announced to AAPL not expanding geographies for mmWave.

Chandarana believes this is a bit misguided and that the increasing 5G mix across new devices will more than offset the content increase miss to expectations of mmWave not expanding. Given QCOM’s recent pullback, better than expected iPhone 13 demand could create a bounce in the stock.

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