Goldman Boosts PT on Tesla (TSLA) to $200; Sees 'Significant' Opportunity in Stationary Storage

Goldman Sachs is lifting its six-month price target on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) from $170 up to $200, while keeping the stock with a Neutral rating.

Analyst Patrick Archambault noted a significant opportunity for Tesla in stationary storage. The analyst's new price target values Tesla's automotive business at $180 per share and stationary storage at $20 per share.

Archambault noted that Tesla could see considerable upside if its auto business was truly disruptive. He commented, Keying off the history of the iPhone, (adjusting for the replacement cycle) would imply 3.1mn units by 2025 and a PV of $442 per share. The Model-T trajectory implies 3.3mn units and $478 per share; and the volume implied by a basket of transformative durable goods (laundry appliances/dishwashers/refrigerators) gets us 1.8mn units and $329 per share.

Archambault also observed that Tesla's Gigafactory could get battery pack costs down to $125 per kWh, the math works to get to positive NPV projects on the commercial side, and widespread grid parity on residential solar may not be that far off, even without ITC and state tax credits.

Tesla's Model S will still be a litmus test for projecting possible Gen 3 demand. Archambault sees U.S. demand stabilizing at 1,500 to 1,500 units/month and Europe at around 700 units/month, Asia will need to make up the rest. The analyst said, We caveat putting undue reliance on the decline from peak US sales (~2,000 in August 2013) to the current run rate given that the company has been directing production towards non-US deliveries.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

esla Motors closed at $233.98 yesterday.

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