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UBS Trims PT and Estimates on Coach (COH); Is Michael Kors' (KORS) Growth Becoming A Serious Headwind?

July 23, 2012 12:54 PM EDT
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Price: $39.90 --0%

Rating Summary:
    19 Buy, 20 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 15 | Down: 10 | New: 13
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UBS maintains a 'Neutral' on Coach (NYSE: COH) price target of $63.00 (from $73.00).

Analyst, Michael Binetti, asks how much headwind could Michael Kors (Nasdaq: KORS) growth be for Coach? His answer: There is a significant threat by KORS in the current 35% share of U.S. women accessories markets. KORS plans to open 45 U.S. stores and grow revenues by 35% by FY13.

Separately, Coach's stock has been volatile on macro headlines from China, however, UBS sees lower risk for Coach in China (proven brand).

In conclusion, Binetti was concerned about COH's growth after Q3 results were reported, citing, lack of same-store sales (SSS) upside; lack of share gain (first time in years); and negative U.S. wholesoale. However, COH's Q3 gross margins were above estimates. Binetti lowers Q4 SSS from +7% to +6% and EPS from $0.86 to $0.85. FY12 cut from $3.53 to $3.52 and FY13 from $4.09 to $4.06.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Coach click here. For more ratings news on Coach click here.

Shares of Coach closed at $58.84 yesterday.


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