Nomura Securities on U.S. Media: Q2 Preview...Some Revisions?
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Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 21 Hold, 3 Sell
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 11 | Down: 12 | New: 13
Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 21 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 11 | Down: 12 | New: 13
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Nomura Securities on U.S. Media: Q2 Preview...Some Revisions?
Analyst, Michael Nathanson, said, "Over the first half of 2012, many media stocks in our coverage handily beat the S&P 500 led by Scripps Networks (up nearly 30%), Disney (up 28%), Discovery (up 26%), News Corp (up 23%) and CBS (up 19%). However, only CBS of this group had meaningful positive forward earnings revisions (+11%) vs. the -1.1% for the S&P 500. As such, the bulk of the remaining share price increases has been sourced by massive relative multiple expansion. While we see the logic in multiples expanding at News Corp and Disney, we are more puzzled in the justification for smaller cable networks operators Scripps Networks and
Discovery, beyond the catch-up trade."
"In order to fuel the rally further, earnings numbers need to start moving up, yet we do not see the scope for positive earnings revisions for the 2Q reporting season. We find ourselves slightly above consensus for CBS and Disney, but below on the rest of the companies in our coverage universe...We expect national broadcast and cable network advertising to decelerate from 1Q to 2Q by 430 basis points to 2.2%...2Q12 box office ended the quarter stronger than we expected given outperformance from a couple of releases."
Nomura cuts price target on Viacom (Nasdaq: VIAB) from $57 to $54, Scripps Networks (Nasdaq: SNI) from $53 to $51, CBS (NYSE: CBS) from $35 to $34, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) from $42 to $41. Price Targets remain unchanged for Disney (NYSE: DIS) at $51, Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) at $27, and Regal (NYSE: RGC) at $15.50. News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) raised $1 to $24.
Also, for Q2, Nomura raises EPS estimate for DIS from $0.91 to $0.93, CNK from $0.35 to $0.37. Nomura lowers Q2 EPS for VIAB from $1.02 to $1.00, NWSA from $0.32 to $0.31, TWX from $0.60 to $0.57, and SNI from $1.00 to $0.87.
Analyst, Michael Nathanson, said, "Over the first half of 2012, many media stocks in our coverage handily beat the S&P 500 led by Scripps Networks (up nearly 30%), Disney (up 28%), Discovery (up 26%), News Corp (up 23%) and CBS (up 19%). However, only CBS of this group had meaningful positive forward earnings revisions (+11%) vs. the -1.1% for the S&P 500. As such, the bulk of the remaining share price increases has been sourced by massive relative multiple expansion. While we see the logic in multiples expanding at News Corp and Disney, we are more puzzled in the justification for smaller cable networks operators Scripps Networks and
Discovery, beyond the catch-up trade."
"In order to fuel the rally further, earnings numbers need to start moving up, yet we do not see the scope for positive earnings revisions for the 2Q reporting season. We find ourselves slightly above consensus for CBS and Disney, but below on the rest of the companies in our coverage universe...We expect national broadcast and cable network advertising to decelerate from 1Q to 2Q by 430 basis points to 2.2%...2Q12 box office ended the quarter stronger than we expected given outperformance from a couple of releases."
Nomura cuts price target on Viacom (Nasdaq: VIAB) from $57 to $54, Scripps Networks (Nasdaq: SNI) from $53 to $51, CBS (NYSE: CBS) from $35 to $34, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) from $42 to $41. Price Targets remain unchanged for Disney (NYSE: DIS) at $51, Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) at $27, and Regal (NYSE: RGC) at $15.50. News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) raised $1 to $24.
Also, for Q2, Nomura raises EPS estimate for DIS from $0.91 to $0.93, CNK from $0.35 to $0.37. Nomura lowers Q2 EPS for VIAB from $1.02 to $1.00, NWSA from $0.32 to $0.31, TWX from $0.60 to $0.57, and SNI from $1.00 to $0.87.
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