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Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on SPDR Oil & Gas ETF (XOP): Get Oily

April 18, 2012 10:35 AM EDT
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Price: $155.91 +0.28%

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Canaccord Genuity Morning Coffee on SPDR Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: XOP): Get oily.

Over a 12-month investment horizon, Canaccord Genuity Energy Analyst John Gerdes believes oil and gas exploration & production names offer ~40% potential upside relative to current market levels. He continues to favour companies that have or are transitioning toward oil development given his expectation of robust oil though weak natural gas market fundamentals over this year. In his view, the E&P sector reflects ~$77.50 NYMEX oil prices and $4.25-4.50 NYMEX gas prices, which are commodity prices that deliver a market return on capital based on the current equity capitalizations. Next year, Gerdes expects NYMEX oil and gas prices to average ~$92.50/~$4, implying oil-weighted E&Ps should outperform gas–weighted peers. The median target price of his coverage portfolio was lowered ~2% largely due to a ~10% reduction in his NGL price outlook relative to Gerdes' NYMEX oil benchmark. His expanded list of favourite E&P names in alphabetical order includes Anadarko (NYSE: APC) – Wattenberg, Eagle Ford, deepwater exploration, Bill Barrett (NYSE: BBG) – Unita, Cabot (NYSE: COG) – Marcellus, Comstock (NYSE: CRK) – Eagle Ford, Wolfbone, Carrizo (Nasdaq: CRZO) – Eagle Ford, UK Huntington, EOG (NYSE: EOG) – Eagle Ford, Wolfcamp, Goodrich (NYSE: GDP) – Eagle Ford, Tuscaloosa and SM (NYSE: SM) – Eagle Ford, which offer progressive catalysts and differential equity value upside potential, in his opinion.


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