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Fourteenth Annual Needham Growth Conference Summary/ CES 2012 Thoughts: Incrementally More Positive on OCZ and STX

January 13, 2012 8:03 AM EST
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Fourteenth Annual Needham Growth Conference Summary/ CES 2012 Thoughts - Trends In IT Hardware

Analyst, Richard Kugele, said, "This year’s Growth Conference came at a volatile time in the global economy and financial markets. Yet, we believe that most investors left feeling better about business trends than they were upon arrival, with numerous positive preannouncements punctuating the week and cautiously optimistic tones from many management teams. Overall, based on checks during the conference and outside conversations, we reiterate our positive stance on OCZ Technology (NYSE: OCZ), TTM Technologies (Nasdaq: TTMI) and Synnex (NYSE: SNX) in particular, while we are more closely watching Intevac (Nasdaq: IVAC), STEC, Inc. (Nasdaq: STEC) and Multi-Fineline Electronix (Nasdaq: MFLX) for an inflection point and tangible evidence of a consistent recovery story. Lastly, following our visit to CES, we left incrementally more positive on OCZ and STX, even if Windows 8 (Nasdaq: MSFT) is unlikely to be a catalyst."

Key Data Points: On balance, we believe that three major areas of data points emerged from the conference.

Firstly, the strong quarterly results from OCZ and SNX, suggesting further adoption of SSDs and resilient IT spending growth, respectively. OCZ also noted that it does not expect further strategic NAND buys in the near-term, which should allay some fears of a worsening working capital position.

Secondly, the positive preannouncement from MFLX implied a recovery in tablet and smartphone components from Thailand and strong growth at their largest customer (i.e. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)) offsetting the slower pulls of last quarter and the headwinds at Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM). We will watch closely for the sustainability of that improvement before upgrading.

And thirdly, the LACK of a negative preannouncement from TTMI as the company saw solid NA growth in 4Q, slower Asia, but book-to-bill >1. Consequently, we argue that even an inline performance justifies a significantly higher stock price for such a well-run company.


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