Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: November Preview: Toyota Turns the Corner, Likely Helping SAAR to 13.5mn
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Up: 11 | Down: 12 | New: 9
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Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: November Preview: Toyota turns the corner, likely helping SAAR to 13.5mn
Analyst Brian A. Johnson, said, "November sales appear to have continued to remain above 13mn. Sales for November appear to be tracking to 13.5mn SAAR (vs. October 2011 at 13.2 SAAR), continuing to run better than a stall scenario. This represents an improvement of 12.5% year over year in unit sales, and a 9.8% increase (given one additional selling day and new SAAR factors) in SAAR from November 2010 (which had a 12.3mn
SAAR)."
"Pricing remains disciplined. Belying the common wisdom that increased incentives are spurring the sales rebound, we note that as of mid-November transaction prices are flat on a sequential basis at the D3 (down $20) and Japanese (up $10) while down $274 at the Korean OEMs (which on the basis of new product enjoy a strong $1,839 y-o-y increase). Incentives were contained, with an increase of $241 at the D3 (driven largely by increased 'truck month' pickup incentives), up only $22 at the Japanese 3 and down $51 at the Korean OEMs.
"Toyota (NYSE: TM) has turned the corner as inventory closer to normal. Note that Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota share typically ran about 24-26% in 2010 through February 2011, and has fallen to an 18-20% range post-quake - with October reaching 22.8% share. In November, we estimate share could rise to 23.5%, still somewhat below the prior run rate."
Other stocks of note: GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Lear (NYSE: LEA), Meritor (Nasdaq: MTOR), BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA), Tenneco (NYSE: TEN), Superior Industries (NYSE: ROP), Fuel Systems (Nasdaq: FSYS) and Titan Int'l (NYSE: TWI)
Analyst Brian A. Johnson, said, "November sales appear to have continued to remain above 13mn. Sales for November appear to be tracking to 13.5mn SAAR (vs. October 2011 at 13.2 SAAR), continuing to run better than a stall scenario. This represents an improvement of 12.5% year over year in unit sales, and a 9.8% increase (given one additional selling day and new SAAR factors) in SAAR from November 2010 (which had a 12.3mn
SAAR)."
"Pricing remains disciplined. Belying the common wisdom that increased incentives are spurring the sales rebound, we note that as of mid-November transaction prices are flat on a sequential basis at the D3 (down $20) and Japanese (up $10) while down $274 at the Korean OEMs (which on the basis of new product enjoy a strong $1,839 y-o-y increase). Incentives were contained, with an increase of $241 at the D3 (driven largely by increased 'truck month' pickup incentives), up only $22 at the Japanese 3 and down $51 at the Korean OEMs.
"Toyota (NYSE: TM) has turned the corner as inventory closer to normal. Note that Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota share typically ran about 24-26% in 2010 through February 2011, and has fallen to an 18-20% range post-quake - with October reaching 22.8% share. In November, we estimate share could rise to 23.5%, still somewhat below the prior run rate."
Other stocks of note: GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Lear (NYSE: LEA), Meritor (Nasdaq: MTOR), BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA), Tenneco (NYSE: TEN), Superior Industries (NYSE: ROP), Fuel Systems (Nasdaq: FSYS) and Titan Int'l (NYSE: TWI)
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