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Jefferies Raises Expectations on Seattle Genetics (SGEN) Adcetris Sales Following Talks with EAP Centers

October 12, 2011 8:57 AM EDT
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Price: $228.74 --0%

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    10 Buy, 18 Hold, 5 Sell

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Jefferies is reaffirming its Buy rating and $25 price target on shares of Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ: SGEN) while raising its expectations on Adcetris sales.

Adcetris received approval for sale on August 19 and its first six weeks of sales will be announced on November 3. The consensus indicates $2 million in sales for the third quarter and $8 million in sales for the fourth, but the firm's estimates are slightly higher due to speculation about the size of the EAP.

For Adcetris, Jefferies forecasts $2.6 million in sales for the third quarter and $9.5 million in sales for the fourth.

The firm discovered that SGEN targeted the EAP to enroll 380 patients in total and carefully over looked the number of patients enrolled at each site. Jefferies believes that 135 patients had been enrolled at the time of approval, while 85 patients were still on the drug.

An analyst comments, "we have reached out to all of the centers in the EAP for a direct tally of EAP enrollment. Of the 23 sites, we received 8 responses, with 6 centers willing to quantify their enrollment. The total number of EAP patients enrolled at these centers was 34, in line with our above calculation of 135 patients."

For 2011 and 2012, Jefferies estimates EPS of ($1.62) and ($1.54) with $58.8 million and $128.4 million in revenue for each year.

For more ratings news on Seattle Genetics click here and for the rating history of Seattle Genetics click here.

Shares of Seattle Genetics closed at $21.32 yesterday.


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