Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: June Preview: Deferral or Deceleration?
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Rating Summary:
6 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 16 | Down: 11 | New: 13
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Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: June Preview: Deferral or Deceleration?
"Light vehicle sales ticked up only slightly in June as many potential buyers continued to defer their purchase amid high car prices and limited inventories. Despite some indication last month that Japanese OEMs were ready to cut prices as post-quake production resumed, pricing has remained strong in June (month to date), likely leading may buyers to defer purchases. This seems to be the case especially for fleet buyers, who elected/were forced to age their fleet further due to the lack of availability of some new models. Based on our channel checks, we estimate that the June 2011 SAAR could end up around 12.0mn units, slightly above May's 11.8mmn pace, with a large sequential improvement in retail deliveries but a decline in fleet."
"We believe Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) recovered some of their lost market share in June (up 100bps from May) as consumers realized dealers still had inventory but may still defer due to high prices. On a y-o-y basis, their market share is still expected to be down by a material 530bps due to limited availability of many popular models."
"Nissan, the Koreans and the Detroit Three continued to pick up much of that share and should outperform the rest of the industry. Industry pricing remained strong through mid-June, possibly dampening demand. In April and May, Japanese auto makers cut incentives/raise prices sharply to conserve inventory - price increase largely matched by the Detroit Three."
(Other stocks of Note - Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM)
"Light vehicle sales ticked up only slightly in June as many potential buyers continued to defer their purchase amid high car prices and limited inventories. Despite some indication last month that Japanese OEMs were ready to cut prices as post-quake production resumed, pricing has remained strong in June (month to date), likely leading may buyers to defer purchases. This seems to be the case especially for fleet buyers, who elected/were forced to age their fleet further due to the lack of availability of some new models. Based on our channel checks, we estimate that the June 2011 SAAR could end up around 12.0mn units, slightly above May's 11.8mmn pace, with a large sequential improvement in retail deliveries but a decline in fleet."
"We believe Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) recovered some of their lost market share in June (up 100bps from May) as consumers realized dealers still had inventory but may still defer due to high prices. On a y-o-y basis, their market share is still expected to be down by a material 530bps due to limited availability of many popular models."
"Nissan, the Koreans and the Detroit Three continued to pick up much of that share and should outperform the rest of the industry. Industry pricing remained strong through mid-June, possibly dampening demand. In April and May, Japanese auto makers cut incentives/raise prices sharply to conserve inventory - price increase largely matched by the Detroit Three."
(Other stocks of Note - Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM)
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