FBR Capital: Black Friday Checks Found Traffic Mixed; Strong Product Cycle in Specialty Athletic Supports Limited Discounting
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Up: 11 | Down: 18 | New: 17
Rating Summary:
3 Buy, 22 Hold, 2 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 11 | Down: 18 | New: 17
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FBR Capital: Our Black Friday Checks Found Traffic Mixed; Strong Product Cycle in Specialty Athletic Supports Limited Discounting
FBR analyst says, "On Black Friday, we visited stores in the Washington, D.C. metro area, including retail locations of The Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL)(Outperform), Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)(Outperform), Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS)(Outperform), True Religion (Nasdaq: TRLG)(Outperform), and VF Corp's (NYSE: VFC)(Market Perform) The North Face...We did not expect Black Friday traffic at any of our targeted stores to be "newsworthy" given that these stores are not doorbuster destinations offering loss-leading items or major discounts, particularly in light of inventory positions supportive of full-price selling. We also believe that an ongoing shift to online holiday sales and discounting earlier in the shopping season are chipping away at Black Friday's importance to overall brick and mortar apparel and footwear holiday sales."
"Relative to overall mall traffic, traffic at Finish Line and Foot Locker stores was strong. Traffic at Dick's Sporting Goods was also robust. At the Georgetown
location of The North Face and the Georgetown and Pentagon City locations of True Religion, in-store traffic was relatively light. Lighter traffic at The North Face and True Religion did not surprise or concern us, given that these are not traditional Black Friday destinations as a result of their premium price points and lack of discounting."
"Overall, what we saw on Black Friday did not sway our thesis on any of our covered companies, but reinforced our positive view of athletic footwear retailers, given what we expect to be continued top-line momentum on solid margins. We think limited and targeted discounting at Finish Line and Foot Locker bode well for gross margins, while the strong product cycle in athletic footwear should continue to support the top line, even in the face of difficult year-over-year comparisons."
FBR's price target for DKS is $36, $18 for FINL, $21 for FL, $22 for TRLG, and $85 for VFC.
FBR analyst says, "On Black Friday, we visited stores in the Washington, D.C. metro area, including retail locations of The Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL)(Outperform), Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)(Outperform), Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS)(Outperform), True Religion (Nasdaq: TRLG)(Outperform), and VF Corp's (NYSE: VFC)(Market Perform) The North Face...We did not expect Black Friday traffic at any of our targeted stores to be "newsworthy" given that these stores are not doorbuster destinations offering loss-leading items or major discounts, particularly in light of inventory positions supportive of full-price selling. We also believe that an ongoing shift to online holiday sales and discounting earlier in the shopping season are chipping away at Black Friday's importance to overall brick and mortar apparel and footwear holiday sales."
"Relative to overall mall traffic, traffic at Finish Line and Foot Locker stores was strong. Traffic at Dick's Sporting Goods was also robust. At the Georgetown
location of The North Face and the Georgetown and Pentagon City locations of True Religion, in-store traffic was relatively light. Lighter traffic at The North Face and True Religion did not surprise or concern us, given that these are not traditional Black Friday destinations as a result of their premium price points and lack of discounting."
"Overall, what we saw on Black Friday did not sway our thesis on any of our covered companies, but reinforced our positive view of athletic footwear retailers, given what we expect to be continued top-line momentum on solid margins. We think limited and targeted discounting at Finish Line and Foot Locker bode well for gross margins, while the strong product cycle in athletic footwear should continue to support the top line, even in the face of difficult year-over-year comparisons."
FBR's price target for DKS is $36, $18 for FINL, $21 for FL, $22 for TRLG, and $85 for VFC.
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