David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 01/25
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Ya-hooo!
Good morning. Normally, I despise market reports that toss out a couple of stocks that did well during the day and call it insight. However, Wednesday�s surprise blast higher can be tied directly to a change in sentiment toward all things tech, which, in turn, can be tied directly to the better-than expected earnings from Yahoo (YHOO), Sun Micro (SUNW), and Corning (GLW).
All one really needed to know about yesterday�s market is that after a few nasty down days and fear that technology was done for a while due to the calendar, technology shares suddenly and emphatically came back in style. The 8.7% move in Sun Micro, the 7.3% spike in Yahoo, and the nearly 11% pop in Corning were all tied to earnings that beat the street�s estimates. And, okay, we might as well admit it; there was probably at least a little short-covering going on yesterday as well.
The newfound confidence in tech helped the Dow to break out to another new all-time high at 12,621. The venerable industrial index was joined in the rarified air by both the NYSE and Mid-Cap Indices, while the S&P 500 managed to close at its best level in more than six years.
The only fly in the ointment was the fact that volume wasn�t exactly robust and as such, the move remains suspect to those that spend their days poring over the charts. And speaking of charts, the bulls will be rooting for the NASDAQ in general and the Semis (SOX) in particular to join their blue-chip brethren in new-high territory soon.
So, now that the bulls have some solid numbers on their side of the ledger, it will be interesting to see if they can round up enough of the troops to push this thing higher still. However, let�s not forget that the earnings parade has a long way to go and that this is still the longest period without even a -2% correction since the 1950�s. So, while it�s certainly okay to enjoy the fun, this is no time to get overconfident.
Turning to this morning, we don�t have any big economic data to review before the bell. However, we will get the report on Existing Home Sales at 10:00 am. In addition, we do have strong numbers from EBay, Qualcomm, and Nokia, which is helping tech out again in the early going.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets were modestly lower across the board overnight. Gold futures are higher this morning with the last trade up $3.20 to $651.40. In the oil pits, crude futures are a little higher so far with the latest quote showing the March contract up $0.25 to $55.62. Interest rates are flat this morning as the 10-year is currently trading with a yield of 4.81%. And finally, with a little more than an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are mixed. The Dow futures are currently off by 8 points; the S&P�s are about a point under breakeven, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 3 points above fair value at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
EBay (EBAY) � Reported $0.31 vs. $0.28, Upgraded at Piper Jaffray
Qualcomm (QCOM) � Reported $0.43 vs. $0.42
Novellus (NVLS) � Reported $0.63 vs. $0.56
Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) � Reported $0.19 vs. $0.16
Dow Chemical (DOW) � Reported $0.98 vs. $0.93
Rockwell Collins (COL) � Reported $0.84 vs. $0.74
Ford (F) � Reported <$1.10 vs. <$0.91>
Lockheed Martin (LMT) � Reported $1.68 vs. $1.45
Nokia (NOK) � Reported EU0.32 vs. EU0.27
Occidental Pete (OXY) � Reported $0.98 vs. $0.92
AT&T (T) � Reported $0.61 vs. $0.59
Union Pacific (UNP) � Reported $1.78 vs. $1.56
UST Inc. (UST) � Reported $0.86 vs. $0.78
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) � Upgraded at BofA
Best Buy (BBY) � Upgraded at BofA
Corning (GLW) � Upgraded at Citigroup
Norfolk Southern (NSC) � Downgraded at Credit Suisse
Siemens (SI) � Upgraded at JP Morgan
Louisiana Pacific (LPX) � Downgraded at Prudential
Broadcom (BRCM) � Upgraded at UBS
Disclosure: Long positions is stocks mentioned: NVLS, LMT, T, UST
Note: All earnings reports compared to Reuters consensus estimates
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Good morning. Normally, I despise market reports that toss out a couple of stocks that did well during the day and call it insight. However, Wednesday�s surprise blast higher can be tied directly to a change in sentiment toward all things tech, which, in turn, can be tied directly to the better-than expected earnings from Yahoo (YHOO), Sun Micro (SUNW), and Corning (GLW).
All one really needed to know about yesterday�s market is that after a few nasty down days and fear that technology was done for a while due to the calendar, technology shares suddenly and emphatically came back in style. The 8.7% move in Sun Micro, the 7.3% spike in Yahoo, and the nearly 11% pop in Corning were all tied to earnings that beat the street�s estimates. And, okay, we might as well admit it; there was probably at least a little short-covering going on yesterday as well.
The newfound confidence in tech helped the Dow to break out to another new all-time high at 12,621. The venerable industrial index was joined in the rarified air by both the NYSE and Mid-Cap Indices, while the S&P 500 managed to close at its best level in more than six years.
The only fly in the ointment was the fact that volume wasn�t exactly robust and as such, the move remains suspect to those that spend their days poring over the charts. And speaking of charts, the bulls will be rooting for the NASDAQ in general and the Semis (SOX) in particular to join their blue-chip brethren in new-high territory soon.
So, now that the bulls have some solid numbers on their side of the ledger, it will be interesting to see if they can round up enough of the troops to push this thing higher still. However, let�s not forget that the earnings parade has a long way to go and that this is still the longest period without even a -2% correction since the 1950�s. So, while it�s certainly okay to enjoy the fun, this is no time to get overconfident.
Turning to this morning, we don�t have any big economic data to review before the bell. However, we will get the report on Existing Home Sales at 10:00 am. In addition, we do have strong numbers from EBay, Qualcomm, and Nokia, which is helping tech out again in the early going.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets were modestly lower across the board overnight. Gold futures are higher this morning with the last trade up $3.20 to $651.40. In the oil pits, crude futures are a little higher so far with the latest quote showing the March contract up $0.25 to $55.62. Interest rates are flat this morning as the 10-year is currently trading with a yield of 4.81%. And finally, with a little more than an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are mixed. The Dow futures are currently off by 8 points; the S&P�s are about a point under breakeven, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 3 points above fair value at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
EBay (EBAY) � Reported $0.31 vs. $0.28, Upgraded at Piper Jaffray
Qualcomm (QCOM) � Reported $0.43 vs. $0.42
Novellus (NVLS) � Reported $0.63 vs. $0.56
Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) � Reported $0.19 vs. $0.16
Dow Chemical (DOW) � Reported $0.98 vs. $0.93
Rockwell Collins (COL) � Reported $0.84 vs. $0.74
Ford (F) � Reported <$1.10 vs. <$0.91>
Lockheed Martin (LMT) � Reported $1.68 vs. $1.45
Nokia (NOK) � Reported EU0.32 vs. EU0.27
Occidental Pete (OXY) � Reported $0.98 vs. $0.92
AT&T (T) � Reported $0.61 vs. $0.59
Union Pacific (UNP) � Reported $1.78 vs. $1.56
UST Inc. (UST) � Reported $0.86 vs. $0.78
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) � Upgraded at BofA
Best Buy (BBY) � Upgraded at BofA
Corning (GLW) � Upgraded at Citigroup
Norfolk Southern (NSC) � Downgraded at Credit Suisse
Siemens (SI) � Upgraded at JP Morgan
Louisiana Pacific (LPX) � Downgraded at Prudential
Broadcom (BRCM) � Upgraded at UBS
Disclosure: Long positions is stocks mentioned: NVLS, LMT, T, UST
Note: All earnings reports compared to Reuters consensus estimates
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
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