David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 11/24
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Straying from the Script
Good morning and a happy Black Friday to all shoppers. Traders stuck to the holiday week script on Wednesday as trading was light but prices were higher. There were some cross currents which pushed and pulled the major indices, but at the end of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ were at multi-year highs while the NYSE and Russell 2000 broke to new all-time record marks, and the DJIA closed just shy of a record close.
As expected, the markets were quiet in front of the Thanksgiving holiday as most traders headed home early. However, there were a few items worthy of note. For starters, Dell blew away the earnings estimates and popped higher by more than 9% on the day. On the flipside, the announcement that Kirk Kerkorian had sold one-quarter of his holdings in GM caused traders to continue to flee the stock. And finally, the University of Michigan�s Consumer Sentiment Index came in lighter than expected, which caused traders to fret over the holiday shopping season.
But, from the bulls� perspective all�s well that ends well as another day of green screens was all that mattered.
Turning to this morning, let�s remember that the stock markets close early today (1:00 pm) and as usual, trading is expected to be extremely light. In addition, it�s time to let the games begin as speculation on how much money consumers will spend this season is already running rampant.
In looking at the pre-market landscape, it appears that there may be some variation from the Thanksgiving week script occurring. Traditionally, the day after Thanksgiving is a thinly traded up day. But, after the close on Wednesday, the Japanese government surprised everyone by reducing its view of the economic outlook in Japan. The news has sent the foreign markets lower across the board and so far at least, the question-mark on the economy has spilled over to the U.S. as well.
So, the question of the day is will this be the beginning of a much anticipated correction? Or, will the bulls manage to shake off the news and resume the uptrend within a day or two?
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, as mentioned, the major overseas markets are all lower. Gold futures are up this morning in response to the lower dollar and are quoted at $638.50 right now. Crude futures are also moving a little higher this morning, with the latest quote showing the December contract up $0.66 to $59.90. Interest rates are moving lower on the negative economic news, with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.73% while the 10-yr is trading at the low end of the range with a yield of 4.54% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are looking to open lower. The Dow futures are currently off by 57 points, the S&Ps are down about 7 points, and the NASDAQ looks to be about 14 points below fair value at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
Boyd Gaming (BYD) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Armor Holdings (AH) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Limited Brands (LTD) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Aracruz Cellulose (ARA) � Downgraded at BMO Capital
Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) � Mentioned cautiously at UBS
Alcoa (AA) � Bear Stearns reaffirms Buy rating
China Unicom (CHU) � Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
Long positions in stocks mentioned: BSC, MS
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Good morning and a happy Black Friday to all shoppers. Traders stuck to the holiday week script on Wednesday as trading was light but prices were higher. There were some cross currents which pushed and pulled the major indices, but at the end of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ were at multi-year highs while the NYSE and Russell 2000 broke to new all-time record marks, and the DJIA closed just shy of a record close.
As expected, the markets were quiet in front of the Thanksgiving holiday as most traders headed home early. However, there were a few items worthy of note. For starters, Dell blew away the earnings estimates and popped higher by more than 9% on the day. On the flipside, the announcement that Kirk Kerkorian had sold one-quarter of his holdings in GM caused traders to continue to flee the stock. And finally, the University of Michigan�s Consumer Sentiment Index came in lighter than expected, which caused traders to fret over the holiday shopping season.
But, from the bulls� perspective all�s well that ends well as another day of green screens was all that mattered.
Turning to this morning, let�s remember that the stock markets close early today (1:00 pm) and as usual, trading is expected to be extremely light. In addition, it�s time to let the games begin as speculation on how much money consumers will spend this season is already running rampant.
In looking at the pre-market landscape, it appears that there may be some variation from the Thanksgiving week script occurring. Traditionally, the day after Thanksgiving is a thinly traded up day. But, after the close on Wednesday, the Japanese government surprised everyone by reducing its view of the economic outlook in Japan. The news has sent the foreign markets lower across the board and so far at least, the question-mark on the economy has spilled over to the U.S. as well.
So, the question of the day is will this be the beginning of a much anticipated correction? Or, will the bulls manage to shake off the news and resume the uptrend within a day or two?
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, as mentioned, the major overseas markets are all lower. Gold futures are up this morning in response to the lower dollar and are quoted at $638.50 right now. Crude futures are also moving a little higher this morning, with the latest quote showing the December contract up $0.66 to $59.90. Interest rates are moving lower on the negative economic news, with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.73% while the 10-yr is trading at the low end of the range with a yield of 4.54% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are looking to open lower. The Dow futures are currently off by 57 points, the S&Ps are down about 7 points, and the NASDAQ looks to be about 14 points below fair value at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
Boyd Gaming (BYD) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Armor Holdings (AH) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO) � Mentioned as a possible takeover target in Business Week
Limited Brands (LTD) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Aracruz Cellulose (ARA) � Downgraded at BMO Capital
Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) � Mentioned cautiously at UBS
Alcoa (AA) � Bear Stearns reaffirms Buy rating
China Unicom (CHU) � Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
Long positions in stocks mentioned: BSC, MS
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
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