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AvidTrader's S&P Analysis for Wednesday

November 22, 2006 8:54 AM EST
AvidTrader's S&P Analysis for Wednesday, November 22, 2006 DELL's (Nasdaq: DELL) reaction gives bulls what they've been waiting for. Too bad for them.

Rod David, President
AvidTrader.com, Inc.
Link: www.avidtrader.com

He who hesitates is lost. Eventually.
S&Ps have now ranged narrowly for four consecutive sessions around last Wednesday's high. That was the session which needed to confirm the prior session's breakout to new highs, but it stopped fractionally short of doing so. The lack of a rally since then speaks for itself. But just holding its ground does make higher highs increasingly likely, if only momentarily. And probably only momentarily, except that the holiday's thin trading is vulnerable to letting a trending attempt get carried away.

Trouble ahead, trouble behind.
Uptrending support from Friday's low that was touched both Monday and Tuesday should provide some fireworks if touched again. But its break would need to extend under Friday's low before becoming a threat to the uptrend. It's not that the threat doesn't exist anyway - it's awfully suspicious that the 24-hour rally into last Wednesday's high has stopped so suddenly and for so long without retesting prior highs as support. Meanwhile, a rally attempted from a narrow consolidation isn't likely to extend very far or for very long, or both, before reversing down more substantially.

Dead man walking.
Tickers may still flash on traders' screens Wednesday. But soon after Wednesday's open, this market is on holiday. Unless a solid decline were well underway through the open Wednesday, or unless an opening surge were reversed into negative territory through the opening sequence's 10:15am ET exit, Wednesday's trading range might not bear much difference from a normal Saturday or Sunday.

Even if Wednesday's open were to attempt trending sharply in one direction or the other, 4-1/2 days of relative illiquidity is quickly approaching, and trending attempts are likely to be stopped short.
Aggressive traders might want to consider fading a trending attempt in anticipation of its complete retracement. Stops should be tighter than usual when stepping in front of a trending attempt. But only if the timing is appropriate should a trending attempt be given room to extend.

Individual equity plays.
AvidTrader's Trigger Points has most recently initiated or updated its coverage on the following stocks: LEA, GYMB, INFA, MSM, SONS, CLE, OLN, DAKT, COGN, MRVL, IACI, CMX, ARIA, SHOO

Today's market charts (Daily Diagram) and individual equity plays (Trigger Points) are available at the site.

www.avidtrader.com

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