David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 09/13
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Good Things CAN Happen
Good morning. With all the doom and gloom prevalent in the sentiment indicators, it is obvious that the bears had done a good job convincing investors that nothing good was going to happen anytime soon. Arguments included the ongoing weakness in the housing market, worry over the consumer�s ability to continue to spend, and the idea of the Fed overdoing it.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the disaster. It seems that good things keep cropping up to spoil the bears� fun. For starters, oil prices have fallen, and fallen hard recently. Then there is the bevy of encouraging corporate reports including surprisingly strong earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Best Buy (BBY) as well as word from McDonalds that the consumer is alive and spending money at their restaurants. And finally, the fact that the bad guys were foiled in their attempt to attack our embassy in Syria was certainly a positive. And just like that, everything, including stock prices, looks a little brighter.
While the markets struggled with the idea of falling oil prices on Monday, by yesterday, everyone began to recognize that lower gasoline prices is a good thing for the consumer. Crude oil for October delivery fell for the seventh straight day and lost another $1.85 to finish at $63.76 yesterday.
And speaking of good things, the fact that yesterday�s triple-digit gain was accompanied by the strongest volume in more than a month was not lost on the bull camp. The bulls are also quick to point out that the rally has pushed the DJIA to within 1.2% of its high for the year. The venerable index is now a mere 252 points away from the all-time high of 11,750.28, which was established on January 14, 2000.
Yesterday�s move also pushed the NASDAQ back into positive territory for the year as technology stocks appear to be assuming a leadership role now that energy seems to be yesterday�s trade. And as most analysts know, it is usually a good thing when tech is involved in market leadership.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic data scheduled to be released today but tomorrow and Friday the data flow will pick back up with reports on Retail Sales and the CPI. Speaking of inflation, Germany�s CPI actually fell during the month of August and has risen just 1.7% in the past year.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets are mostly higher, although the returns are fairly subdued at this point. Gold futures continue to trade under $600 this morning and are quoted at $593.80 right now. Crude futures are holding steady at their newly found lower levels this morning and are exchanging hands just $0.20 higher at $63.90 at the moment. Interest rates are a little lower this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.81% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.76% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are doing very little. The Dow futures are currently about 5 points below breakeven, the S&Ps are down by a fraction, and the NASDAQ is sporting an advance of 3.20 at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
Wal-Mart (WMT) � To offer digital video download service
United Parcel Service (UPS) � BofA begins coverage with Buy rating
Beazer Homes (BZH) � Downgraded at BB&T Capital Mkts
Univision Comm (UVN) � Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Federated Dept Stores (FD) � Mentioned positively at Goldman Sachs
Flextronics (FLEX) � Upgraded at Goldman Sachs
Tenet Healthcare (THC) � Upgraded at Goldman Sachs
BP PLC (BP) � Upgraded at JP Morgan
Gap (GPS) � Upgraded at Lehman
AMR Corp (AMR) � Upgraded at Merrill Lynch. Also CAL, LCC
Canon (CAJ) � Upgraded at Merrill Lynch
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) � Long-term credit rating downgraded at Moody�s
Monster Worldwide (MNST) � Upgraded at SunTrust
Molex (MOLX) � Mentioned positively at Bank America
Taiwan Semi (TSM) � Estimates reduced at BofA
Sandisk (SNDK) � Citigroup restates Buy rating
Lehman Bros (LEH) � Reports $1.57 vs. $1.49
Long positions in stocks mentioned: CAJ, MOLX, SNDK
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Good morning. With all the doom and gloom prevalent in the sentiment indicators, it is obvious that the bears had done a good job convincing investors that nothing good was going to happen anytime soon. Arguments included the ongoing weakness in the housing market, worry over the consumer�s ability to continue to spend, and the idea of the Fed overdoing it.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the disaster. It seems that good things keep cropping up to spoil the bears� fun. For starters, oil prices have fallen, and fallen hard recently. Then there is the bevy of encouraging corporate reports including surprisingly strong earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Best Buy (BBY) as well as word from McDonalds that the consumer is alive and spending money at their restaurants. And finally, the fact that the bad guys were foiled in their attempt to attack our embassy in Syria was certainly a positive. And just like that, everything, including stock prices, looks a little brighter.
While the markets struggled with the idea of falling oil prices on Monday, by yesterday, everyone began to recognize that lower gasoline prices is a good thing for the consumer. Crude oil for October delivery fell for the seventh straight day and lost another $1.85 to finish at $63.76 yesterday.
And speaking of good things, the fact that yesterday�s triple-digit gain was accompanied by the strongest volume in more than a month was not lost on the bull camp. The bulls are also quick to point out that the rally has pushed the DJIA to within 1.2% of its high for the year. The venerable index is now a mere 252 points away from the all-time high of 11,750.28, which was established on January 14, 2000.
Yesterday�s move also pushed the NASDAQ back into positive territory for the year as technology stocks appear to be assuming a leadership role now that energy seems to be yesterday�s trade. And as most analysts know, it is usually a good thing when tech is involved in market leadership.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic data scheduled to be released today but tomorrow and Friday the data flow will pick back up with reports on Retail Sales and the CPI. Speaking of inflation, Germany�s CPI actually fell during the month of August and has risen just 1.7% in the past year.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets are mostly higher, although the returns are fairly subdued at this point. Gold futures continue to trade under $600 this morning and are quoted at $593.80 right now. Crude futures are holding steady at their newly found lower levels this morning and are exchanging hands just $0.20 higher at $63.90 at the moment. Interest rates are a little lower this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.81% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.76% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are doing very little. The Dow futures are currently about 5 points below breakeven, the S&Ps are down by a fraction, and the NASDAQ is sporting an advance of 3.20 at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
Wal-Mart (WMT) � To offer digital video download service
United Parcel Service (UPS) � BofA begins coverage with Buy rating
Beazer Homes (BZH) � Downgraded at BB&T Capital Mkts
Univision Comm (UVN) � Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Federated Dept Stores (FD) � Mentioned positively at Goldman Sachs
Flextronics (FLEX) � Upgraded at Goldman Sachs
Tenet Healthcare (THC) � Upgraded at Goldman Sachs
BP PLC (BP) � Upgraded at JP Morgan
Gap (GPS) � Upgraded at Lehman
AMR Corp (AMR) � Upgraded at Merrill Lynch. Also CAL, LCC
Canon (CAJ) � Upgraded at Merrill Lynch
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) � Long-term credit rating downgraded at Moody�s
Monster Worldwide (MNST) � Upgraded at SunTrust
Molex (MOLX) � Mentioned positively at Bank America
Taiwan Semi (TSM) � Estimates reduced at BofA
Sandisk (SNDK) � Citigroup restates Buy rating
Lehman Bros (LEH) � Reports $1.57 vs. $1.49
Long positions in stocks mentioned: CAJ, MOLX, SNDK
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
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