Amgen's (AMGN) Bone Drug Does Well in Deutsche Bank Survey

Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) with a price target of $195. A Deutsche Bank bone survey suggested Romosozumab may dominate the bone formation drug space, with Abaloparatide being the second choice, said analyst Robyn Karnauskas.

"Osteoporosis space is heating up with Abaloparatide (from Radius) recently posting positive ph 3 data & Amgen’s Romosozumab set to unveil Ph 3 in 1H’16. We recently did a survey to understand the need in the bone formation space and tried to get physician feedback about the profiles of both Abaloparatide and Romosozumab. Doctors, from our survey, believe that with the convenience of once monthly injection, Romosozumab will likely become their first choice (50-54% market share) once it reaches markets. However, they will also keep using Abaloparatide & give ~30% market share to the drug. The markets are price sensitive though & generic Forteo may reduce the share of Abalo to 20% (from 30% prev.) & Romo to 40% (from 50—54% prev)," said Karnauskas.

"Given our survey results, we believe Romosozumab, once approved, will be able to take ~50% share in the bone formation drug space. When showed the data, 90% doctors believed that Romosozumab (based on BMD increase) will likely turn out to be a better drug vs. Forteo and Abaloparatide. We are currently assigning 50% probability of success to Romo numbers due to the lack of fracture data. We see ~$4/sh upside to our TP if Fracture data turn out to be positive in Phase 3 readout (expected in 1H’16). We see Abalo peak sales at $1.1B WW," added the analyst.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Amgen click here. For more ratings news on Amgen click here.

Shares of Amgen closed at $167.72 yesterday.

You May Also Be Interested In

• BofA Securities Starts Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) at Underperform, 'pivoting to Rezdiffra commercial dynamics'
• BofA Securities Downgrades CNH Industrial NV (CNHI) to Neutral, 'CEO change adds uncertainty at the wrong time'
• Berenberg Upgrades STMicroelectronics NV (STM:FP) (STM) to Buy