Arch Coal (ACI) Posts Q1 adj.-Loss of 54c/Share; Updates on Market Trends, Company Outlook

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) reported Q1 EPS of ($0.54), $0.06 worse than the analyst estimate of ($0.48). Revenue for the quarter came in at $677 million versus the consensus estimate of $731.82 million.

Market Trends

The global coal trade remains under significant pressure, as prevailing seaborne thermal and metallurgical prices have further softened and supply continues to outpace demand growth in the international thermal and metallurgical markets. Global steel production has declined 1 percent since the start of the year, marked by weakness in Europe and Asia, and steel capacity factors in the United States fell below 69 percent in April from 77 percent at the end of 2014.

Given recent market trends, Arch believes industry-wide coal exports from the United States will decline below 90 million tons in 2015 compared with 2014 export levels of nearly 100 million tons, with metallurgical exports accounting for most of the reduction. We expect seaborne coal markets to rebalance in time as demand grows, new global supply slows, and previously announced supply rationalizations take effect.

Arch now expects U.S. coal consumption for power generation to decline by 80 million tons in 2015 as compared to 2014, due to the surplus of natural gas and the impact of new environmental regulations that took effect in April. As a result of these factors, utility stockpiles increased by an estimated 10 million tons during the first quarter and are expected to build further over the course of the year.

Domestic coal supply reductions are counterbalancing demand declines to some extent. Mine Safety and Health Administration data suggests that total domestic production decreased by 13 million tons in the first quarter of 2015 versus the fourth quarter of 2014. Arch expects coal supply reductions to continue and accelerate as the year progresses.

Company Outlook

Arch now expects thermal sales volumes for 2015 to be in the range of 120 million to 130 million tons. The company has lowered its metallurgical coal sales guidance, and now expects to ship between 6.0 million and 6.8 million tons for 2015. Using this revised volume guidance, Arch is more than 95% committed on thermal sales and 75% committed on metallurgical sales for the full year.

Arch has also reduced its annual cash cost-per-ton guidance range for its Appalachian segment, while maintaining its cost outlook for the Powder River Basin. The company has raised the 2015 cash cost-per-ton guidance range for the company's Bituminous Thermal region to reflect the impact of lower production levels.

"We started the year with a solid sales foundation, and we are building on that position by proactively adjusting our sales expectations and managing our exposure by layering in sales as appropriate to run our mines efficiently," said Eaves. "Looking ahead, we believe our diversified, low-cost asset portfolio and our continued focus on controlling the factors we can will enable us to effectively manage the business through market headwinds."

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Arch Coal (ACI) click here.

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