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Dahlman Rose Reiterates a 'Buy' on Arch Coal Inc (ACI); ACI Joins PCX, ANR and WLT in Lowering 2011 Guidance

October 3, 2011 9:37 AM EDT
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Price: $20.36 -0.49%

Rating Summary:
    15 Buy, 20 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 11 | Down: 18 | New: 17
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Dahlman Rose reiterates a 'Buy' on Arch Coal Inc (NYSE: ACI) price target of $38.00.

Dahlman analyst say, "Friday after the close, ACI management announced reduced guidance for 2011. EBITDA is now expected to be in a range of $900 million to $1.0 billion, down from $1.08 billion to $1.2 billion previously. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be $1.00 to $1.40, down from $1.75 to $2.15 previously. 3Q11 is shaping up to be very difficult for Eastern underground mining, with negative pre-announcements from Alpha Natural (NYSE: ANR)(Buy $42 PT), Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX)(Hold), and Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT)(Buy, $85 PT). Only CONSOL (NYSE: CNX)(, Buy, $65 PT) has preannounced psitively."

"As a result of the company's update, we are reducing our estimates for 3Q and 4Q. We now ook for 3Q EBITDA of $223 million, down from $345 million previously. Our 2011 estimate is now $964 million, down from $1.16 billion previously. Our revision is driven entirely by lower expected met coal sales estimates and higher expected associated Eastern costs. We ook forward to the company's updated outlook on the 3Q call, but for now we are leaving our 2012 and 2013 estimates unchanged. Despite the negative impact on 2H11 indicated in he release, we see the recent decline in ACI stock as a buying opportunity, particularly on Weakness Monday related to the guidance release."

For more ratings news on Arch Coal Inc click here and for the rating history of Arch Coal Inc click here.

Shares of Arch Coal Inc closed at $14.58 yesterday.


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